""" CatBoost 模型封装。 """ import numpy as np import pandas as pd from catboost import CatBoostRegressor, Pool from models.base import BaseModel from sklearn.model_selection import TimeSeriesSplit _DEFAULT_PARAMS = { "loss_function": "RMSE", "iterations": 1000, "learning_rate": 0.03, "depth": 5, "random_seed": 42, "verbose": False, "allow_writing_files": False, "min_data_in_leaf": 20, } class CatBoostModel(BaseModel): """CatBoost 回归模型。""" name = "catboost" def __init__( self, params: dict | None = None, early_stopping: int = 50, eval_ratio: float = 0.2, random_seed: int = 42, ): self.params = params or _DEFAULT_PARAMS.copy() self.params["random_seed"] = random_seed self.early_stopping = early_stopping self.eval_ratio = eval_ratio self._model: CatBoostRegressor | None = None self._feature_names: list[str] = [] def fit(self, X: pd.DataFrame, y: pd.Series) -> "CatBoostModel": self._feature_names = list(X.columns) n = len(X) val_size = int(n * self.eval_ratio) X_train, y_train = X, y eval_set = None if val_size >= 50: split_idx = n - val_size X_train, X_val = X.iloc[:split_idx], X.iloc[split_idx:] y_train, y_val = y.iloc[:split_idx], y.iloc[split_idx:] eval_set = Pool(X_val, y_val) self._model = CatBoostRegressor(**self.params) self._model.fit( X_train, y_train, eval_set=eval_set, early_stopping_rounds=self.early_stopping if eval_set else None, verbose=False, ) return self def predict(self, X: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.Series: if self._model is None: raise RuntimeError("模型尚未训练") preds = self._model.predict(X[self._feature_names]) return pd.Series(preds, index=X.index, name="pred") def get_feature_importance(self) -> pd.DataFrame: if self._model is None: return pd.DataFrame() imp = self._model.get_feature_importance() names = self._feature_names df = pd.DataFrame({"feature": names, "importance": imp}) total = df["importance"].sum() df["importance_pct"] = df["importance"] / total * 100 if total > 0 else 0 return df.sort_values("importance", ascending=False) def cv_evaluate( self, X: pd.DataFrame, y: pd.Series, n_folds: int = 5 ) -> pd.DataFrame: """时间序列交叉验证评估。""" tscv = TimeSeriesSplit(n_splits=n_folds) results = [] for fold, (train_idx, test_idx) in enumerate(tscv.split(X)): X_train, X_test = X.iloc[train_idx], X.iloc[test_idx] y_train, y_test = y.iloc[train_idx], y.iloc[test_idx] model = CatBoostModel( params=self.params, early_stopping=self.early_stopping, eval_ratio=0.0, ) model.fit(X_train, y_train) preds = model.predict(X_test) ic = preds.corr(y_test) mse = ((preds - y_test) ** 2).mean() results.append({"fold": fold, "ic": round(ic, 4), "mse": round(mse, 4)}) df = pd.DataFrame(results) df.loc["mean"] = df.mean() return df @property def n_estimators_used(self) -> int | None: """实际使用的树数量。""" if self._model is None: return None return self._model.tree_count_