{
  "url_hash": "44e53ca739956285",
  "source_id": "yicai",
  "title": "美联储新主席沃什首秀前瞻：“第一只靴子”如何落下？如何传递“鸽派”信息？",
  "text": "标题:美联储新主席沃什首秀前瞻：“第一只靴子”如何落下？如何传递“鸽派”信息？\n[sentiment=neutral importance=2 event_type=宏观政策 行业=宏观]\n摘要:美联储新主席沃什将主持首次FOMC会议，市场预期维持利率不变，释放中性信号。\n正文:北京时间6月18日凌晨，美联储新任掌门人沃什将主持他上任以来的首次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议，并召开任内首次新闻发布会。市场正在静待“第一只靴子”落地。\n悬念如此之高，沃什将会如何进行政策表达？\nMFS投资管理公司（MFS Investment Management）首席经济学家兼投资组合经理韦斯曼（Erik Weisman）与第一财经记者详解了他对即将召开的FOMC会议的预期。\n他预计，美联储此次将维持利率不变，并释放出中性倾向。\n同时他也预测，沃什可能会作出一些改变\n，“例如不再使用点阵图、减少新闻发布会，或者在委员会内部，一边寻求共识，一边保持沉默。”\n此前高盛在月初发表报告表示，“仍然认为加息不太可能，尽管可能性比初期要高一些。”该机构将美联储最近两次降息的时点预测推迟至2027年6月和12月。\n韦斯曼对记者表示，FOMC大概率会在6月17日的会议上维持联邦基金目标区间不变。美联储也可能暗示未来货币政策将保持中性。\n他举例称，“美联储近期的言论总体上偏鹰派。例如，达拉斯联储主席洛根（Logan）认为，政策要么宽松，要么中性，通胀没有显示出回升至2%目标的迹象。她认为，今年晚些时候可能需要加息。”\n再如，“克利夫兰联储主席哈马克（Hammack）也表达了对持续高通胀可能对消费者影响加剧的担忧。另一方面，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯等人对当前的货币政策环境提出了中立的评估。”韦斯曼表示。\n高盛也在近期报告中表示，\n“美联储的评论已变得更加鹰派，而富有韧性的经济活动和就业数据也降低了加息的门槛。但我们尚未看到中东战争带来的通胀冲击正在扩大的迹象，并且在劳动力市场处于平衡状态且工资增速低于2%通胀目标之际，这种通胀冲击似乎不太可能持续。”\n同时，市场也格外关注沃什在人工智能（AI）与就业和增长之间的看法。\n2025年11月，沃什曾在一篇题为《美联储领导力失灵》的评论文章中预测，AI将引发生产率爆发，特朗普政府放松管制和促进增⻓的相关政策将提振经济增⻓。\n沃什彼时表示，美联储是这一黄金时代的主要障碍，并提出了四项需要解决的问题：首先，他建议摒弃美联储对未来⼏年滞胀的预测，转而采用AI驱动的通胀放缓预期。他认为，随着生产率的提高，实际工资理应会增长。\n其次，他认为，美联储必须反思为何其在疫情期间的通胀预测如此失准。沃什将通胀归咎于政府过度支出和货币超发，并表示美联储资产负债表“可大幅缩减”。第三，他将2023年硅谷银行倒闭归咎于美联储监管失职；第四，主张美联储应放松银⾏业监管。\n“\n考虑到沃什对科技生产力的看法，他可能会发表鸽派言论。不过，我们认为这种可能性很低，因为此时发表此类言论会损害他作为鹰派的形象。”韦斯曼对记者表示，此外，这种立场也会与他的同事相悖，他们中的许多人此前已经表明了鹰派的政策意图。\n实际上，\n“在声明中维持宽松倾向可能会招致越来越多的反对。这种对抗性的做法可能会破坏沃什的长期改革计划，而该计划很可能需要委员会达成共识。”他解释道。\n高盛则认为，目前“美国劳动力市场表现一直强于预期，现在预计失业率将进一步小幅上升至4.4%，但不足以带来降息的紧迫性。因此，我们认为对FOMC而言，最自然的路径是推迟进一步降息，直到关税、战争和AI需求的影响消退并且核心PCE通胀接近2%。”\n“我们维持3%～3.25%的最终利率预测不变，主要是因为过去一年FOMC的中长期预测点阵图一直保持稳定，而且大多数成员预计未来会进一步正常化。”高盛表示，“但更长时间的暂停可提供更多时间，让稳健的经济表现来说服他们相信利率已处于适当水平，并且我们认为利率维持不变的路径是一种合理的替代情景。”\n高盛还表示，“即便考虑到加息的可能性有所上升以及利率可能维持不变的路径，我们经概率加权的美联储利率预测仍然比市场定价明显更为鸽派。”\n沃什未来如何沟通\n在上任之前，作为美联储的积极批评者，沃什曾表示短期预测是“美联储分散注意力的又一个执念。经济学家同样难逃⼈性的弱点。一旦政策制定者公布了他们的经济预测，他们就可能因为自己的言论而作茧自缚。美联储领导⼈最好不要轻易分享他们的想法。”\n此外，他还称，前瞻性指引在正常时期发挥的作用应该很⼩。\n对此，韦斯曼对记者表示，“6月份的会议预计将提供预测材料。3月18日，鉴于中东冲突带来的不确定性，前任主席鲍威尔特意淡化了经济声明（SEP）的预测。但战争的阴云至今仍未散去。因此，即使没有领导层更迭，经济声明的效用也值得怀疑。但沃什一直公开批评美联储的模型和预测方法。他可能完全搁置经济预测框架/散点图，或者宣布对这一流程进行审查。”\n他进一步预测，如果真的发布经济预测框架，其传递的信息可能仍然是经济前景“受冲突影响”。\n“由于3月份的共识是战争将相对迅速地结束，油价也将出现反弹，因此通胀预测将被上调。事实证明，石油冲击的持续时间远超预期，而且由于此后金融环境的宽松，通胀风险也随之升高。”韦斯曼解释道。\n此外，韦斯曼还预测，“沃什可能会取消新闻发布会或减少发布频率。”\n他表示：“这位新任美联储主席一直批评过度沟通。如果他召开新闻发布会，他将面临大量关于如何引导美联储朝着他多年来所指明的方向前进的问题。现在还为时尚早。这位新任美联储主席可能仍在评估他必须赢得委员会成员的意见，才能成功推行政策。他可能不想在美联储内部达成共识之前发表任何声明。”",
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}