{
  "url_hash": "4ca65c31e0b2d25c",
  "source_id": "yicai",
  "title": "远程办公叠加线上社交吞噬“脱单”机会？日本少子化趋势快于预期",
  "text": "标题:远程办公叠加线上社交吞噬“脱单”机会？日本少子化趋势快于预期\n[sentiment=neutral importance=2 event_type=国际局势 行业=宏观]\n摘要:日本2025年出生人口和生育率创历史新低，少子化趋势快于预期，劳动力萎缩，政府政策效果有限。\n正文:日本高龄少子化现象再度趋紧。\n近日，日本厚生劳动省公布的最新数据显示，2025年日本国内出生人口数量为67.1236万人，总和生育率（平均每名育龄妇女生育子女数）1.14，两项数据均创有统计以来的最低纪录。\n日本新生儿数量已连续10年下降。2025年这一数字较2024年减少近1.5万人，同比下降2.2%。日本国立社会保障与人口问题研究所此前预测显示，日本出生人数降至67万人左右可能发生在2040年，但现实却是，这一情况已提前15年到来。\n日本街头（来源：资料图）\nAI时代见面交流变少了？\n分析认为，导致日本新生人口数量急剧下滑的最直接原因便是结婚数量的减少。日本厚生劳动省的数据显示，在2000年前后，日本每年的结婚人数约为80万人。2025年，这一数字跌破50万，仅为48.91万人。\n数据还显示，目前日本平均初婚年龄男性为31.1岁、女性29.8岁，30岁以下年轻群体的初婚率和生育率持续下降，直接加剧少子化现象。\n但值得注意的是，日本政府的调查显示，年轻人中渴望结婚的想法并没有消退。政府调查显示，约80%的单身人士仍然希望在未来能结婚。但是，意图和现实之间日益扩大的差距正成为影响日本社会发展的一个决定性因素。\n日本政府的上述调查显示，造成这种差距的原因之一则是，单身青年群体认为，在如今的互联网时代，线下面对面相遇的机会减少了。如果说15年前，日本近90%的已婚夫妇是通过学校、工作或朋友介绍自然相识的，如今，这个数字已经下降到74%左右。\n调查显示，远程办公的兴起虽大幅降低了年轻人的日常通勤成本，却也减少了他们在工作场所建立人际关系的机会。而社交场景的线上化，同样让不少年轻人逐渐降低了线下社交的主动性。\n除了社交机会的减少，经济压力也是横亘在日本年轻群体结婚意愿面前的重要阻碍。虽然日本政府虽推出一些婚育支持政策，但各地财政能力存在差异，落实政策力度也不均衡。比如，东京都免除儿童保育费及18岁前的医疗费，每月为每名儿童提供5000日元补贴；而神奈川县的家庭年均保育费支出比东京高出12万至70万日元，医疗费等也需自行承担。\n日本学者的分析认为，尽管日本政府已出台多项举措应对少子化，但当前日本经济增长前景不确定性增大、通胀水平不断上升，家庭承担了更多的养育成本，正持续削弱年轻人的生育意愿。此外，就业和收入与出生率高度关联，日本物价与住房等生活成本持续上涨、实际工资增长缓慢，进一步加重年轻人的经济压力和对未来的不安情绪，导致生育率难以回升。\n“看不出高市有多认真对待人口政策”\n日本新生儿数量逐年减少，直接导致适龄劳动人口的规模不断萎缩。根据日本厚生劳动省的数据，日本劳动年龄人口占总人口的比重已从上世纪90年代的近七成，下降至近年的不足六成，劳动力缺口持续扩大。而为了填补各行业的用工空白，尤其是护理、建筑、农业等本土年轻人不愿进入的行业，此前，日本政府逐步放宽外籍劳工的引入政策，越来越多的外籍务工人员进入日本劳动力市场，成为缓解日本用工荒的重要力量。\n2025年日本政府数据显示，日本在留外国人数已突破400万，创历史新高。这一群体覆盖日本多个细分劳动力市场，尤其活跃在制造业、餐饮住宿等服务业、以及IT行业。\n不过，去年高市早苗就任首相后，尽管与往届首相一样，把应对人口减少直接置于政府议题的优先位置，但高市政府的对策在高调宣布和实际落地之间差距显著。一位在日本的华人告诉第一财经，在人手紧缺之际，高市政府的注意力似乎更倾向于将国家安全和外国人政策捆绑，而负责人口问题的大臣同时还兼顾着领土争端和食品安全等十多个其他事务，“看不出高市在人口问题方面有认真对待”。\n此前日本政府已正式宣布上调在留资格更新手续费。比如，永住许可则从现行的1万日元（约合人民币428元）上调至20万日元（约合8550元）左右，净增加19倍。\n“在当前各国政府都在争抢人才的时候，高市政府却反其道而行，把外国人留在日本的行政成本推高10~20倍不等，从长远看这着实在为日本未来的产业竞争力埋下隐患。”上述华人说道。",
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