{
  "url_hash": "cd4e4f61db5882c2",
  "source_id": "sina",
  "title": "瑞银：油价回落缓解沃什加息压力 美联储或按兵不动直至2027年转向降息",
  "text": "标题:瑞银：油价回落缓解沃什加息压力 美联储或按兵不动直至2027年转向降息\n[sentiment=neutral importance=2 event_type=国际局势 行业=宏观]\n摘要:美伊达成协议重开霍尔木兹海峡，油价回落缓解美联储加息压力，市场预期美联储按兵不动至2027年。\n正文:瑞银全球财富管理固定收益策略主管莱斯利·法尔科尼奥表示，在美国和伊朗宣布达成协议、重开霍尔木兹海峡之后，油价受到抑制，美国国债市场随之上涨，美联储今年所面临的加息压力正在减轻。\n法尔科尼奥周一表示：“即便在停火协议达成之前油价已经开始下跌，两年期美债收益率仍在上升，且之所以上升，是因为市场当时几乎100%计入了2026年12月加息的可能性。”“而现在的情况是，油价正在回落，但市场正在撤销此前计入的加息预期。正因如此，两年期美债收益率也开始下降。”\n新任美联储主席凯文·沃什将于本周主持其上任后的首次货币政策决议。此前，由于油价飙升重新点燃通胀压力，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）内部支持今年加息的声音不断增强。法尔科尼奥表示，她预计本周FOMC将正式放弃宽松措辞，从而使整体政策前景更趋鹰派。不过，她仍认为，美联储下一步行动将是降息——但时间要等到2027年。\n在美伊达成旨在结束中东战争、并可能为霍尔木兹海峡这一全球能源运输咽喉要道的重新开放铺平道路的和平协议后，国际油价周一跌至三个月低点。油价的下跌推动通胀预期降温、进而令市场对美联储的加息预期有所松动。在上周期间，交易员一度完全计入了FOMC将在12月加息25个基点的预期。但随着美国国债价格上涨，尤其是短端债券领涨，该加息概率到周一已降至约74%。\n法尔科尼奥表示，美联储在2026年维持利率不变，将使决策者有时间评估经济增长表现——目前经济增长“依然具有韧性”——以及劳动力市场未来的发展情况。她表示：“我确实认为，他们会选择按兵不动，行使他们所拥有的这一选择权，静观其变，等待更多经济数据出炉，然后再决定是否调整政策。”“而这种政策转向很可能发生在2027年第一季度或第二季度。”\n美国和伊朗于6月14日宣布达成停战谅解备忘录。美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台发文称，美国与伊朗的协议“现已完成”，他“授权”霍尔木兹海峡“免费开放”以及美国海军立即解除相关封锁；待双方于6月19日正式签署协议后，霍尔木兹海峡将于当天“重新开放”。伊朗外交部副部长加里巴巴迪确认伊美谅解备忘录文本已最终确定，“伊斯兰堡备忘录”正式签署仪式将于6月19日在瑞士举行。\n特朗普15日在社交媒体上称，已有船只开始驶离霍尔木兹海峡，其中许多船只满载石油。据国际航运信息平台“海上交通网站”显示的船舶追踪数据，液化天然气（LNG）运输船“迪沙”号15日通过霍尔木兹海峡进入阿曼湾。这是美国和伊朗达成协议后首艘通过霍尔木兹海峡的大型能源运输船。\n美国副总统万斯15日表示，预计美伊谅解备忘录将使霍尔木兹海峡“长期开放且不收取通行费”。不过，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃15日表示，伊朗将在“特定时期内”负责霍尔木兹海峡安全通行管理，并将对相关航运服务收取费用。巴加埃表示，根据谅解备忘录文本，在下一阶段，伊朗作为霍尔木兹海峡沿岸国，将与阿曼一道采取必要措施，确保船舶能够安全通过该海峡。\n美伊战事爆发前，经霍尔木兹海峡运输的石油通常为日均2000万桶，约占全球石油日运输总量的五分之一。航运业机构估计，经过3个多月的冲突，约有500艘商船仍滞留在海湾，通行量当前降至涓流状态。\n不过，由于航运安全等问题仍存在不确定性，多数船东和运营商目前仍持观望态度，表示需要了解更多细节以评估是否能安全通过该海峡。此外，报道援引市场服务机构克普勒公司的分析称，海湾数百艘闲置船只中，近300艘已装载并随时准备通过霍尔木兹海峡，阿曼湾也有大约同样数量的船只在等待返回主要出口码头。理论上，这将释放数百万桶原油供应，但实际通行仍面临多重障碍，包括需清除船体附着物、以及争夺狭窄航道通行权等问题。\n美联储将于北京时间6月18日凌晨2点公布利率决议和经济预期摘要。新任美联储主席沃什将召开其首场货币政策新闻发布会。目前市场预期美联储本周将按兵不动。有分析指出，尽管上周公布的数据显示出美国通胀在能源成本飙升的推动下加速，短期内美联储加息概率仍低。当前市场急需确认沃什的鹰鸽底色——若他面对过热的数据展现出极强的抗通胀强硬姿态，市场将因此进一步押注紧缩。\n新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n责任编辑：郭建",
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}