{
  "url_hash": "db8f5d8cbf7418e0",
  "source_id": "yicai",
  "title": "三大宏观扰动\"落而未定\"，基金经理：科技板块AI主线未见松动",
  "text": "标题:三大宏观扰动\"落而未定\"，基金经理：科技板块AI主线未见松动\n[sentiment=positive importance=3 event_type=其他 公司=大族激光,振华科技,光库科技 行业=电子,通信,商业航天 代码=002008.SZ,000733.SZ,300620.SZ]\n摘要:A股科技板块受宏观扰动落地及资金流入推动，电子、通信、商业航天概念活跃，大族激光涨停，振华科技、光库科技大涨。\n正文:全球资本市场正经历宏观变量的集中冲击。\n目前，SpaceX（NASDAQ：SPCX）市值已飙至2.5万亿美元，美伊和平协议落定布伦特原油跌至80美元/桶，而美联储新任主席即将登台首秀，三大外部扰动逐渐落定为市场风险偏好的修复提供了催化剂。\n6月16日，A股指数分化，沪指震荡微跌0.11%报4091点，创业板指延续涨势收涨1.72%报4102.94点，科创综指涨1.27%。沪深两市成交3.09万亿元，连续两日站稳3万亿关口。电子、通信、有色金属领涨，MLCC概念、PCB概念、光通信再次集体爆发。\n不过，扰动落地不等于风险消除。美伊协议正式签署在6月19日，后续60天履约仍存变数；沃什首秀结果要到北京时间6月18日凌晨揭晓；SpaceX估值重塑是长期变量而非短期催化剂。A股投资者最关心的问题是：这些扰动究竟是压制因素解除的信号，还是新一轮不确定性的开始？\n易方达基金经理彭珂对第一财经分析称，当前科技板块的核心主线仍是人工智能，产业趋势并未出现松动迹象。以北美市场为例，AI正从算力层面逐步走向应用闭环，Anthropic等模型的Agent能力已开始落地，顶级大模型的价值被市场重新认知——模型分层明显，高智商模型具备独特壁垒，未来应用层的价值将大量集中到底层模型身上。相比之下，单纯的应用公司（如传统SaaS）面临较大压力。\n资金从“存量博弈”到“增量入场”\n具体看，近期事件落地与资金共振正在改变市场生态。\n美伊和平协议落定后，霍尔木兹海峡风险溢价显著回落，布伦特原油跌至80美元/桶；美联储新主席沃什即将在6月FOMC会议上完成首秀，市场普遍预期其将释放更清晰的降息路径信号。\n而SpaceX上市后连涨两日，6月15日股价报收192.5美元/股，涨19.6%，较135美元/股的发行价累计上涨逾42%，市值突破2.5万亿美元，超越台积电（2.26万亿美元）位列全球第六。\n对A股而言，SpaceX的估值坐标系效应持续发酵。6月16日午后，商业航天概念继续活跃，大族激光（002008.SZ）收于涨停，振华科技（000733.SZ）盘中触及涨停，光库科技（300620.SZ）收涨14%。\n与此同时，增量资金并非只追逐单一热点，而是在科技成长大方向上进行系统性布局。据Choice数据统计，6月16日A股资金净流入高度集中于科技与周期板块：其中，电子行业获主力资金净流入逾236亿元，电力设备逾132亿元，通信逾121亿元，有色金属逾92亿元，四大行业合计超581亿元。\n资金流出方向同样清晰，交通运输遭主力资金净流出逾26亿元，银行净流出逾11亿元，茅概念遭净流出逾58亿元，大消费、商业航天等板块也净流出超20亿元。\n这种科技进、消费退的结构，说明增量资金正在从传统蓝筹向科技成长迁移，市场风格切换信号明确。\n但交易人士提示，外部变量仍有反复可能。美伊协议的执行细节、SpaceX上市后的股价表现、沃什首秀的具体措辞，均存在超预期或低于预期的风险。市场当前的乐观定价，是否已经充分反映了最好情形，值得警惕。\n市场从“脉冲反弹”到“趋势修复”\n三重扰动正在从悬而未决走向陆续落地。但修复能走多远、能走多久还有待验证。\n资金大规模入场只是必要条件，行情能否从脉冲反弹升级为趋势修复，需要穿越\n产业趋势、盈利拐点、配置策略\n三重验证。机构人士从不同维度给出了判断，而共识在于：科技仍是主线，但分化加剧，确定性成长成为核心筛选标准。\n平安睿享文娱基金经理黄维认为，AI是全行业景气度最强的赛道，随着产业加速扩张，原材料、零部件等上下游已出现供给缺口，且扩产周期长、技术门槛高，产能释放难以匹配下游需求，形成标志性的“AI通胀”特征。\n在具体投资方向上，黄维对第一财经分析称，“AI通胀”与“低渗透新技术”两大布局主线。前者因产品涨价能力支撑业绩快速释放，后者则能避开成熟行业的内卷，持续跑出更高成长性，重点覆盖CPO、光产业链、PCB、算力配套电力架构、被动电子元件及半导体功率器件等方向。他提到，算力升级正推动服务器电力架构的系统性革新，间接拉动电子被动元件、功率半导体等品类需求扩容与单机价值上涨。对于回撤担忧，黄维表示上述行情尚未走完，下半年下游集中拉货将加速AI通胀落地，新技术迭代也将不断催生新机会。\n彭珂则从风险角度补充了三大变量：一是Anthropic、OpenAI等头部AI公司若集中上市，历史经验可能形成阶段性高点；二是美联储若开启连续加息，将抑制中小型科技企业的融资与创新；三是是否有新的产业趋势（如内需强劲复苏）分流资金。他同时强调，当前A股AI产业链已高度分化，光模块、PCB、CCL等环节中真正具备业绩兑现能力的龙头公司股价波动趋于收敛，投资应重点关注“1到10”或“10到100”的确定性成长，而非概念炒作。目前电子和通信行业已成为其组合的主要配置，核心龙头估值尚未泡沫化。\n更宏观层面，摩根资产管理（中国）副总经理兼投资总监杜猛将视野拉长至2026年这一重要转折点。他认为，过去几年通缩环境压制制造业收入和利润，而今年随着PPI提前转正、CPI逐步上行，上市公司盈利开始修复，A股整体利润增速有望达双位数，中国权益资产对全球投资者的吸引力显著提升，横向估值修复空间较大。\n在行业机会上，杜猛认为，AI算力硬件景气度和业绩增速有望领先全市场；以锂电为核心的新能源产业正处于关键转折期，产能过剩已基本出清，光伏、风电、电动车的战略地位大幅提升；化工、装备制造、金属等传统制造业在PPI上行和出海驱动下，正迎来新一轮发展周期。这一宏观判断与前述科技细分方向相互印证，为市场的中长期结构性行情提供了基本面支撑。",
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}