{
  "url_hash": "1908fe370193ea75",
  "source_id": "cls",
  "title": "世界黄金协会调查：全球央行增持意愿创纪录 黄金战略储备地位进一步提升",
  "text": "标题:世界黄金协会调查：全球央行增持意愿创纪录 黄金战略储备地位进一步提升\n[sentiment=neutral importance=3 event_type=宏观政策 行业=黄金,宏观]\n摘要:世界黄金协会调查显示全球央行增持黄金意愿创纪录，黄金战略储备地位提升，多家投行看涨金价。\n正文:财联社6月16日讯（编辑 牛占林）\n世界黄金协会(WGC)周二发布的《2026年全球央行黄金储备调查报告》显示，受访央行储备管理者中有45%预计未来12个月将增加黄金持有量，该比例较上年上升2个百分点，创下历史新高。\n在参与此次年度调查的74家央行中，54%的受访者表示其黄金储备将维持不变，仅有1%预计将减少持仓。此次调查于今年2月5日至5月19日期间进行。\n大多数问卷回复是在2月底中东冲突爆发后收到的，这场冲突引发油价上涨，并导致金价承压下挫。\n此次调查发布之际，黄金正处于一个具有里程碑意义的时刻。世界黄金协会指出，黄金近期已超越美国国债，成为全球最大的储备资产，这凸显出官方机构在储备资产配置理念上的重大转变。\n世界黄金协会央行部门主管Shaokai Fan表示，各国央行对黄金依然保持浓厚兴趣，近期金价回落并未改变其增持黄金的意愿。“各国央行依然非常看好黄金，事实上比以往任何时候都更加积极。”\n美国和伊朗上周末就结束战争并重启霍尔木兹海峡通航达成协议条款，推动金价周一大涨3%。\n咨询机构Metals Focus预计，2026年全球央行黄金需求按吨计算将同比下降15%，但仍将高于2022年以前的水平，继续为黄金市场提供持续支撑。\n战略性储备资产\n世界黄金协会的调查结果表明，越来越多央行正将黄金视为一种战略性储备资产，而不再仅仅把它当作历史遗留的被动储备资产。84%的受访者预计，未来五年黄金在全球储备资产中的占比将进一步上升；与此同时，74%的受访者预计美元储备占比将在同期下降。\n这一结果进一步印证了过去十年来全球储备管理领域发生的深刻变化。过去四年，全球央行年均购买黄金约1000吨，是此前十年平均水平的两倍。\nShaokai Fan表示，当前最值得关注的变化之一是，越来越多央行开始加入购金行列。“我们正在看到一些新的央行买家出现。”他列举了印尼、马来西亚、危地马拉等国家。这些国家近期开始进入黄金市场，或在多年暂停购金后重新恢复购买。\nFan声称，在地缘政治和经济不确定性持续上升的背景下，各国央行内部关于黄金配置的讨论明显增多，储备管理者正重新评估如何实现资产组合多元化。\n在持有黄金的主要原因中，90%的受访者认为，黄金在危机时期表现良好。其他主要原因还包括长期价值储藏功能以及资产组合多元化需求。对于新兴市场和发展中经济体而言，黄金作为地缘政治风险对冲工具的重要性尤为突出，85%的相关受访者选择了这一因素。\n与此同时，部分央行继续推进黄金储备存放地点调整。调查显示，过去12个月内，有9%的受访央行增加了国内黄金储存规模，高于去年的5%；另有10%的央行分散了海外黄金储存地点，高于去年的2%。\n展望未来12个月，7%的受访者计划进一步增加国内储存，9%计划扩大海外储存地点的多元化布局。\n多家投行看好黄金\n与此同时，多家投行发布了看多黄金的报告。巴克莱认为，近期金价在中东冲突升级后出现20%-25%的大幅回调，并不意味着黄金长期牛市逻辑被破坏，而更像是一轮由市场仓位调整引发的“技术性修正”。因此，该行维持对黄金的长期看涨判断，预计2026年和2027年金价分别达到每盎司4791美元和4900美元。\n巴克莱指出，美元重新走弱以及全球央行恢复稳定购金将成为推动金价反弹的两大关键催化剂。虽然短期内仍可能面临波动，但从中长期来看，黄金牛市逻辑依然完好。\n另一家机构花旗表示，在霍尔木兹海峡危机解除后，全球通胀压力将得到缓解，这将打压美联储加息预期，为金价打开上行通道。\n花旗维持黄金6至12个月5000美元/盎司的看涨预测，但同时警告金价仍面临较大波动风险。",
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