{
  "url_hash": "6cd1e8d2b8237db5",
  "source_id": "sina",
  "title": "美联储6月决议前瞻：沃什首秀面临内部分裂，改革之路如何规划",
  "text": "标题:美联储6月决议前瞻：沃什首秀面临内部分裂，改革之路如何规划\n[sentiment=neutral importance=3 event_type=宏观政策 行业=宏观]\n摘要:美联储6月会议召开，新主席沃什首秀，内部分歧大，市场预期按兵不动，关注缩表与沟通改革。\n正文:政策声明或删除降息倾向措辞，缩表立场受到关注。\n当地时间6月16日，为期两天的美联储议息会议在美国华盛顿特区正式召开。\n作为凯文·沃什就任美联储主席后的首秀，周三的美联储新闻发布会，是其履新后首次针对通胀、就业与经济前景发表实质性讲话，如何应对内部政策前景分歧的局面，规划未来缩表、改革等政策主张受到广泛关注。\n政策分歧巨大\n本月以来公布的经济数据显示，面对美伊战事的冲击，美国通胀同比涨幅创三年新高，劳动力市场保持强劲。通胀数据叠加近期强劲的就业数据，使投资者认为美联储将把重心放在抑制通胀上，加息倾向增强。道富环球投资管理高级全球宏观策略师马文·洛表示：“理解美联储新领导层的政策反应函数，将是关键。如果出现我们所说的‘鹰派式按兵不动’，我认为这会让市场感到意外。”\n第一财经记者汇总发现，整体来看，近期美联储官员的沟通口径进一步偏向鹰派。越来越多官员将防范通胀放在首位，同时表态：若通胀未能好转，不排除进一步收紧货币政策。\n克利夫兰联储行长哈马克、达拉斯联储行长洛根、堪萨斯城联储行长施密德等鹰派官员越发担忧，若不加码政策约束，通胀或将持续高于目标水平。哈马克支持短期维持利率不变，但强调当前政策的紧缩力度或许仍显不足，并警示若经济数据延续现有走势，美联储很快就需要采取加息行动以应对通胀风险。\n立场偏鸽派的官员方面，纽约联储行长威廉姆斯重申，当前货币政策已具备适度紧缩效果，短期内暂无加息或降息的明确必要。他指出，美国经济增长稳健、劳动力市场保持稳定，核心通胀仍存在下行压力。美联储理事巴尔也持观望态度，表示现有政策在一段时间内大概率将维持不变。\n德意志银行在给第一财经记者发送的报告中写道，随着通胀风险上升、劳动力市场下行风险消退，美联储此前为对冲就业市场风险而采取的偏宽松政策，如今已显得 “防护过度”，未来加息可理解为对过往政策的理性纠偏。其基准判断仍为美联储将长期按兵不动，但美国经济增长韧性凸显、劳动力市场持续企稳，意味着为推动通胀稳步向 2% 目标回落，美联储后续加息的风险正在抬升。\n市场普遍预期，本次会议美联储将按兵不动。\n眼下最紧迫的短期议题是：联邦公开市场委员会FOMC是否打算删除政策声明中向市场释放的降息倾向信号。\n在上一次会议中，三名委员会成员投下反对票，主张美联储停止释放降息倾向。\n特朗普此前曾多次批评美联储及前主席鲍威尔，认为其降息力度未能达到自己的预期。但伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）数据显示，联邦基金利率期货显示，市场预计美联储年底前仍有加息可能。摩根大通首席经济学家迈克尔·费罗利认为，沃什不会直白表态 “考虑加息”，但他很可能会说不排除加息的可能性。\n沟通与改革\n除了利率决议本身，每季度更新一次的短期经济展望SEP和利率点阵图受到广泛关注，而这可能与沃什后续的改革计划息息相关。\n本次发布会有大量关键议题等待解读：沃什如何评估关税对商品物价的冲击；本轮油价冲击是否会持续并扩散至全产业链；近期房租降温带来的通胀缓和效应，是否已经见顶（最新数据已有相关迹象）。\n仍留在美联储理事会的鲍威尔，过去会在发布会直接回应上述问题。但沃什此前表态，不愿对美联储后续利率路径释放过多信号。\n本次发布会的核心看点，是他会在前瞻指引与经济、通胀前景预判之间划出怎样的边界。\n投资者还希望了解沃什的政策目标，以及他可能如何重塑美联储。\n沃什已表达过缩减美联储6.7万亿美元资产负债表的意愿，此举可能在市场引发连锁反应。\nThreadneedle 固收宏观组合经理阿尔-侯赛尼表示：“他此前一直在大谈资产负债表、央行沟通策略。但关于通胀演变逻辑、当前货币政策立场这类核心问题，外界几乎一无所知，本次发布会将首度揭开谜底。”\n沃什正在酝酿调整美联储的沟通方式或政策指引机制。宏利投资管理发达市场固定收益主管杰夫·吉文表示：“如果政策更依赖数据、而美联储不再给出明确的政策意图指引，那么每一份经济数据的发布都会受到更多关注，市场波动也可能较过去几年有所加剧。”\n沃什此前曾严厉批评美联储的沟通方式，称其不仅引发政策失误，还让美联储在市场决策与经济运行中占据了本不该有的核心地位。他计划推动运行模式变革，其中就包括重新梳理美联储的货币政策预测机制与对外沟通方式，沟通的内容体量和发布频次都将纳入调整范围。“坦白说，现任美联储主席及委员会其他央行官员发言过于频繁。我始终认为，探寻真相远比反复表态更重要。召开新闻发布会，就应当发布有价值的关键信息。”他在今年4月的提名听证会上表示。\n整体来看，他主张提升信息透明度，但同时缩减总体沟通频次。去年，沃什在胡佛研究所的演讲中再次重申上述观点：“美联储高层应当减少随性发表看法的行为。官员们紧跟最新数据反复转变论调的现象十分普遍，却只会起到反作用。”沃什理想中的运作模式是：不再由主席在会前引导联邦公开市场委员会成员达成统一意见，而是让各方在会议上充分辩论、共同敲定政策。他认为这样能制定出更合理的政策，也能提升会议质量。\n但一个现实难题是，他无法约束同僚公开发表演讲、接受采访。美联储12位地区联储行长拥有独立发声的权利，且他们常在议息会议前后频繁对外表态。前美联储副主席克拉里达表示：“不可能让所有人都闭口不言。官员发声本就常态，放弃这一发声渠道并不现实。这也是支持保留每次会议后召开发布会的一大理由。”\n另一方面，调整政策指引机制，取消宽松倾向信号，也契合沃什的长期目标。2004 年，时任美联储主席的本·伯南克提出了“镜中迷宫困境”：政策制定者一方面要向市场传递未来政策信号，另一方面又需要从市场动向中获取参考依据。美联储当下的沟通方式打乱了这套逻辑：过度引导市场形成预期，倒逼央行不得不兑现承诺，即便相关政策本身并不合理。\n对于美联储官员匿名预估联邦基金利率的“点阵图”，他也持类似批评态度。他认为，正是这一机制导致疫情期间美联储未能迅速出台举措抑制通胀。“美联储将利率预期、经济预测全盘公之于众。但人都会受固有想法束缚，官员们会执着于此前的预测，迟迟不愿调整。我认为，如果美联储坚持在会议现场再做决策，通过逐步研讨斟酌，就能避免一错再错。”沃什称。\n前圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德透露，美联储内部已探讨多项优化点阵图机制的方案。其中一种思路是延后发布利率预测，让市场聚焦政策声明本身；另一种提议是仅公布美联储工作人员的预测。利率预测文件需由联邦公开市场委员会全体商议确定，沃什无法单方面修改。这也印证了市场的普遍判断：新任主席虽计划对美联储沟通体系进行深度改革，但相关举措大概率会循序渐进落地。\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n责任编辑：郭建",
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}