{
  "url_hash": "9fa5c1c4e4c24d5f",
  "source_id": "eastmoney",
  "title": "霍尔木兹海峡何时恢复通行？预测市场Kalshi：8月前重启概率升至58%",
  "text": "标题:霍尔木兹海峡何时恢复通行？预测市场Kalshi：8月前重启概率升至58%\n[sentiment=neutral importance=3 event_type=国际局势 行业=宏观]\n摘要:美伊达成协议，霍尔木兹海峡预计本周五重新开放，但细节仍存不确定性，航运恢复概率上升。\n正文:在东方财富看资讯行情，选东方财富证券一站式开户交易>>\n在美国总统特朗普周日宣布与伊朗达成协议、并将重新开放霍尔木兹海峡后，预测市场平台Kalshi上关于霍尔木兹海峡恢复正常通航的概率迅速上升。\nKalshi数据显示，霍尔木兹海峡在8月之前恢复正常通航的概率已升至58%，重新站上50%以上水平，上一次达到如此高位还是在5月底。\n其他相关预测市场也同步上升，预计今年年底前\n航运\n恢复正常的概率为75%。\n过去三个半月里，霍尔木兹海峡在事实上处于基本瘫痪状态。作为全球油气贸易的咽喉，战前每天约2000万桶石油及石油产品经霍尔木兹海峡运输。\n特朗普周日在社交媒体平台上表示，美伊双方已同意签署一份“谅解备忘录”，并批准解除美国海军封锁。\n“全世界的船只，发动引擎吧。让石油流动起来！”特朗普写道。他随后进一步说明，霍尔木兹海峡将在本周五正式签署协议后重新开放，以便开展“排雷作业”。\n伊朗方面也确认将于周五与美国签署谅解备忘录，并强调霍尔木兹海峡将按照“伊朗方面的安排”重新开放。\n不过，协议细节仍存在不确定性。卡塔尔周一表示，希望就美伊之间“尚未解决的问题”获得进一步说明，其中包括“确保霍尔木兹海峡航行自由”。\n值得注意的是，以色列并未被纳入此次协议框架。以色列此前与美国协同行动，于2月28日对伊朗发动打击。\n这种不确定性也解释了为何Kalshi并未给予霍尔木兹海峡恢复正常通航极高的确定性。目前，即便是“今年年底前恢复正常通航”的概率，也仍未达到90%以上。\n伊朗外交部副部长加里巴巴迪表示，“战争结束”安排同样涵盖黎巴嫩局势。但以色列周一宣布，其国防军仍将继续驻留在黎巴嫩、加沙和叙利亚的“安全区”内。\n美国副总统万斯周一表示，协议将确保霍尔木兹海峡长期向国际\n航运\n开放，且不会征收通行费。\n“过去24小时里，我们已经看到更多船舶开始恢复通行，”他说。\n但伊朗方面称，在过去超过96小时内，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军尚未签发任何通行许可。在另行通知之前，霍尔木兹海峡的进出通道对所有船只关闭。\n（文章来源：财联社）",
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