{
  "url_hash": "c6a0435ed39c0890",
  "source_id": "cls",
  "title": "和平协议促使美汽油价格跌破4美元 分析师却警告油价飙升风险仍存",
  "text": "标题:和平协议促使美汽油价格跌破4美元 分析师却警告油价飙升风险仍存\n[sentiment=neutral importance=2 event_type=国际局势 行业=宏观]\n摘要:美伊达成协议重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，美国汽油价格跌破4美元，但分析师警告油价飙升风险仍存。\n正文:财联社6月16日讯（编辑 卞纯）\n随着美伊达成将重新开放全球石油运输咽喉要道霍尔木兹海峡的协议，\n美国零售汽油均价自4月中旬以来首次跌破每加仑4美元\n，这可能会缓解美国民众的生活成本压力。\n根据油价信息平台GasBuddy的数据，\n美国全国平均零售汽油价格周日（6月14日）降至每加仑3.997美元，这是自4月中旬以来首次跌破4美元大关\n；不过，这一价格仍较去年同期高出90.8美分。\n另据美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据，周一全美汽油均价为每加仑4.065美元。\n汽油价格回落或将为特朗普政府带来一丝喘息之机。美国总统特朗普曾承诺降低消费者的能源成本，然而美伊战争爆发以来不断上涨的燃油成本令其支持率降至任内最低点。而选民的满意度对于共和党在今年11月的中期选举中保住国会参众两院的多数席位至关重要。\n市场普遍将每加仑4美元的汽油价格视为一道心理关口，一旦突破该水平，部分消费者便会开始改变行为模式，例如减少燃油消耗。\n分析人士表示，只要美伊协议持续有效，\n美国燃油价格应该会继续下跌\n。\nGasBuddy石油分析主管Patrick De Haan表示：“真正的考验现在转向了霍尔木兹海峡，任何重新开放及石油运输恢复正常的消息，都将是这种缓解态势能够持久的最明确信号。就目前而言，只要局势不发生急剧逆转，且美伊双方继续朝着积极的方向推进，全国汽油均价可能会继续下降。”\nDe Haan表示，截至周一，自战争爆发以来，美国人已在汽油上额外支出了约460亿美元。\n上周公布的数据显示，美国5 月消费者价格指数三年来首次突破4%。不过，美国劳工部表示，汽油价格的回落促使本月消费者的通胀预期有所缓和。\n分析师警告油价飙升风险仍存\n然而，这种缓解态势能否持久目前尚不明朗。分析人士警告称，\n市场需要时间才能恢复正常，而且不能保证伊朗和美国达成的协议不会出现变数，油价飙升的风险“并未完全消除”\n。\n“这是一个脆弱的结构，很容易崩溃。可能存在一些无法克服的细节问题。”北欧斯安银行（SEB）首席大宗商品分析师Bjarne Schieldrop在谈及美伊停战备忘录时如此说道。\n特朗普表示，协议的正式签署仪式将于19日在瑞士举行，届时霍尔木兹海峡将全面重新开放，而美伊协议内容将在19日正式签署后对外公布。\n然而专家指出，由于清除水道中的水雷是一项复杂的工程，航运恢复正常可能仍需数周时间。\n海湾石油（Gulf Oil）首席能源顾问Tom Kloza表示，如果在清理海峡、恢复船舶保险等方面没有取得实质性进展，当前的缓解期可能是短暂的。\n“即使霍尔木兹油轮运输很快恢复，夏季或秋季油价飙升的风险也并未完全消除，”Rapidan Energy总裁、前白宫能源顾问Bob McNally表示。“全球石油市场仍需应对历史性的15亿桶供应损失……霍尔木兹原油出口重启后，需要数周甚至数月的时间才能重新平衡全球石油市场。”\n美国汽油市场正面临迫在眉睫的供应紧缩危机。强劲的国内需求和庞大的出口规模威胁着本已偏低的库存，可能导致汽油价格再次攀升。政府数据显示，截至6月第一周，全国汽油库存降至2.151亿桶，为近十年来同期最低水平。\n政府数据还显示，美国战略石油储备上周进一步减少890万桶，降至3.403亿桶，为1983年7月以来的最低水平。",
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