{
  "url_hash": "4940d1f8a2e06a60",
  "source_id": "cls",
  "title": "就在今天中午！日本利率将逾30年来首度迈入“1时代”？",
  "text": "标题:就在今天中午！日本利率将逾30年来首度迈入“1时代”？\n[sentiment=neutral importance=2 event_type=国际局势 行业=宏观]\n摘要:日本央行预计将加息25个基点至1%，为逾30年来最高水平，市场关注后续政策路径及日元走势。\n正文:财联社6月16日讯（编辑 潇湘）\n市场普遍预计，日本央行今日午间将在首次没有行长出席的议息会议上，将基准利率上调至1995年以来的最高水平。\n据业内媒体的调查显示，几乎所有日本央行观察人士都预计，在周二为期两天的会议结束时，该行决策者将把基准利率上调25个基点至1%。\n日本央行此前已表示，行长植田和男已因治疗肝囊肿感染于近日住院，他将以书面形式向理事会提交意见，而不会亲自参与投票。\n此次预期中的日本央行加息将是自去年12月以来的首次，这也正值日本央行政策制定者应对中东冲突带来的通胀上行风险之际——尽管结束战争的协议正式签署已近在眼前。市场将密切关注日本央行何时可能再次采取行动的线索，交易员们担心，如果日元走弱，会议结束后日本当局可能会出现干预汇市的举措。\n日本央行今日料将加息\n日本央行目前已表示，副行长内田真一今日将代替住院的行长植田和男，负责解释日本央行的最新决策及未来政策走向。值得注意的是，内田此前也是刚从白血病治疗中康复出院。\n投资者将关注这位资深的央行官员表态是否会比行长植田和男更为直白，以判断其对今后加息路径和日本央行购债政策的看法。内田真一曾被广泛视为过去二十年日本央行政策框架的缔造者之一。\n内田真一将面临一项微妙的考验：\n其不仅需要展现出足够强硬的姿态以遏制日元跌势，还必须兼顾首相高市早苗青睐的扩张性货币政策立场。部分经济学家指出，内田真一若未能与植田和男立场保持一致，恐将引发市场剧烈波动。\n大和研究所首席经济学家指出，内田真一很有可能凭借其在政策执行领域的丰富经验，通过极为严谨、周密的阐释，引导市场参与者更准确地把握日本央行的政策意图，尤其是对政策正常化进程的解读。\n日本央行前国际部主任Shigeto Nagai则表示，日本央行既要避免激怒高市早苗首相领导的政府——该政府对过早政策正常化的风险日益敏感，同时又要让投资者相信，在通胀风险加剧和日元走弱的情况下，央行并未落后于形势。\n在4月份的会议上，植田和男曾面临着三张赞成加息的反对票，这是他担任日本央行行长期间最大的分歧。自那以后，在上次会议上持观望态度的两位决策者已发声支持加息，且植田和男在6月会议前的最后一次计划演说中，也暗示了加息的极大可能性。\n投资者还将关注是否有日本央行官员反对加息。由高市早苗提名的首位政策委员会成员Toichiro Asada可能会倾向于支持更具宽松的政策——这反映了首相的立场。\n反对在6月加息的一个理由是较弱的通胀数据，受政府补贴的影响，该数据目前低于日本央行2%的目标。即便如此，日本央行预计今年晚些时候通胀将会加速，因为中东冲突导致的更高能源成本将渗透到经济中。植田和男曾暗示，在本财年内，CPI增速可能会超过3%。\n本次会议的另一个重要焦点是日本央行的削减购债计划。\n目前，该行正在按每季度减少2000亿日元的速度削减债券购买量，直至明年3月。由于担心过快退出可能会破坏债券市场的稳定，这一速度在去年已经被减半。尽管进行了削减，但在经历了十多年的大规模资产购买之后，日本央行仍拥有日本未偿还政府债务的约一半。\n日本10年期国债收益率在5月份攀升至1996年以来的最高水平，突显出今年日债市场的剧烈波动。本月早些时候，植田和男表示，决策者在考虑未来的购债计划时，将同时兼顾市场功能的改善和市场的稳定性。\n知情人士也透露，随着债券市场状况的改善，官员们可能会讨论进一步放缓削减步伐，或者完全暂停这一过程。\n日元套利交易解除风暴还会再现吗？\n值得一提的是，提起日本央行加息，许多人脑海中不免会第一时间联想到2024年8月日元套利交易平仓所引发的“全球风暴”\n——当时日元套利交易的平仓引发了全球市场的剧烈波动，日经225指数曾在一天内就暴跌了12%，美股也随之重挫。\n不过，这一次，日本央行加息的“杀伤力”，或许不会那么显著。\n首要的原因或许是眼下全球货币政策的大环境已经与两年前大为不同。\n这一次，日本央行的加息并非再是逆潮流之举。2024年时，日本央行的加息其实正处于全球宽松的大潮流之中，日本央行加息与美联储降息的利率“东升西落”组合，产生了剧烈的碰撞。\n而眼下，各国加息其实已是大势所趋。日本央行加息的决定其实仅仅是使日本央行与其他转向收紧政策的央行保持一致——包括欧洲央行，后者在上周四刚刚进行了备受期待的加息。即使政策利率上调至1%，日本仍将是发达国家中利率最低的国家之一。\n此外，市场人士对今日日本央行的加息其实已经早有预期，甚至从某种意义上说——日本央行的行动还被不少人嫌弃过于迟缓\n，这从过去几周里日元和日债的抛售行情中，已可见一斑。\n与过往担忧套利交易解除引发日元大涨不同的是，不少投资者眼下更为焦虑的是，加息会不会仍无法阻止日元眼下的贬值势头。尽管日本当局已经动用了创纪录规模的干预来支撑日元汇率，但日元仍徘徊在1美元兑160日元这一关键门槛附近——此前日本政府曾因汇率触及该水平而介入市场。\n对于日本这样的资源进口国而言，货币贬值会加剧通胀压力。\n外汇市场的持仓数据显示，投机者做空日元的头寸在近期已升至九年高位，这表明尽管存在干预风险且日本央行可能加息，日元套利交易仍在持续升温。\n宏观分析师Taro Kimura表示：“随着其他主要央行纷纷加息，利差可能会像2022年那样再次成为日元走弱的主要驱动因素，从而增加通胀的上行风险。”\n日本央行加息行动其实已过于迟缓？\n一个有意思的现象是，在日本政府债券收益率终于足够高，足以吸引全球基金经理重返该国债券市场一年多之后，许多海外投资者反而正开始撤离。\nT. Rowe Price Group Inc.、施罗德集团和Brandywine环球投资管理公司等机构近期减少了对日本长期国债的投资，或仅持有少量此类债券。最新数据显示，4月份海外投资者卖出的日本超长期国债数量超过了买入数量，这是自2024年以来的首次。\n这一变化反映出市场担忧，即便日本央行预计将于周二加息，其收紧货币政策的速度也不足以抑制通胀、稳定市场。对许多人而言，今年创下数十年高位的日债收益率所带来的吸引力，已被对日本央行反应迟缓、易受政治压力影响的担忧所掩盖。\n摩根大通在近期发布的\n研报\n中也指出，\n日本央行加息或难再触发日元大涨，干预效果或有限。\n小摩指出，目前市场已对日本央行后续加息路径计入较多预期，若要带来偏鹰派的意外，央行需要明确暗示将加快加息节奏，甚至将利率提高至中性利率以上，但这种可能性较低。与此同时，若央行决定自2027年4月起放缓甚至暂停削减国债购买，可能被市场解读为偏鸽派。整体来看，会议结果被解读为鸽派的风险更高，反而可能引发日元卖压。\n摩根大通强调，当前环境与2024年夏季明显不同。当时日本财务省干预和日本央行加息都具有意外性，同时美国就业数据走弱推升美联储降息预期，带动美元全面走弱，最终触发日元空头大规模平仓，美元兑日元一度大跌逾20日元。相比之下，本轮加息和干预均已被市场部分定价，且美国就业数据强劲后，市场反而开始计入美联储加息预期，美元获得广泛支撑。",
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}