{
  "url_hash": "c5bc5c63b14ceab6",
  "source_id": "sina",
  "title": "迎估值修复窗口，A股周期板块集体反弹",
  "text": "标题:迎估值修复窗口，A股周期板块集体反弹\n[sentiment=positive importance=4 event_type=宏观政策 公司=中国国航,南方航空,中国东航,紫金矿业,招金黄金 行业=航空运输,有色金属,海运 代码=601111.SH,600029.SH,600115.SH,601899.SH,000506.SZ]\n摘要:霍尔木兹海峡复航预期推动A股周期板块集体反弹，航空、有色、海运等受益于油价下行和需求回暖，估值修复窗口开启。\n正文:炒股就看\n金麒麟分析师研报\n，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！\n航空、海运、有色等传统周期行业行情的核心催化，来自市场对霍尔木兹海峡即将恢复通航的强烈预期。\n6月15日，A股市场周期板块集体异动，航空运输、海运港口、有色金属、基础化工等板块早盘全线走高。截至当日收盘，航空机场板块表现活跃，\n中国国航\n(\n6.390\n,\n-0.13\n,\n-1.99%\n)\n（601111.SH）、\n南方航空\n(\n5.390\n,\n-0.07\n,\n-1.28%\n)\n（600029.SH）、\n中国东航\n(\n4.030\n,\n-0.09\n,\n-2.18%\n)\n（600115.SH）三大航司集体上涨；有色金属板块方面，铜、锡等工业金属标的表现活跃；海运板块更是掀起了涨停潮。\n这一轮行情的核心催化，来自市场对霍尔木兹海峡即将恢复通航的强烈预期。随着美伊和谈信号持续释放，市场普遍认为，持续近三个月的海峡管控有望迎来实质性松动，这将对全球能源供应链、通胀预期以及大宗商品定价产生深远影响。\n对于A股而言，此前受海峡封锁影响深度调整的周期板块，正站在估值修复的关键节点，油价下行、成本改善、需求回暖三重逻辑共振下，航空、石化、海运、有色等产业链有望迎来估值修复。\n周期板块估值修复，数月承压后迎来反弹窗口\n6月15日，传统周期板块集体上涨，不仅是直接受益于油价下行的航空板块，包括化工、有色、海运在内的全周期产业链也均有资金回流迹象。黄金板块中，\n紫金矿业\n(\n30.290\n,\n-1.02\n,\n-3.26%\n)\n（601899.SH）收涨7.63%，\n招金黄金\n(\n15.200\n,\n0.10\n,\n0.66%\n)\n（000506.SZ）涨停，\n赤峰黄金\n(\n31.980\n,\n-0.65\n,\n-1.99%\n)\n（600988.SH）、\n湖南黄金\n(\n26.600\n,\n0.95\n,\n3.70%\n)\n（002155.SZ）等跟涨。海运板块掀起涨停潮，\n凤凰航运\n(\n4.580\n,\n0.01\n,\n0.22%\n)\n（000520.SZ）、\n招商南油\n(\n4.380\n,\n-0.20\n,\n-4.37%\n)\n（601975.SH）、\n中远海能\n(\n17.900\n,\n-1.35\n,\n-7.01%\n)\n（600026.SH）等股涨停。化工、贸易、建材等行业都实现不同程度上涨。\n霍尔木兹海峡复航预期的升温，正在给此前持续承压的周期板块带来久违的反弹动能。对于上述行业集体大涨，多方机构认为，这不仅仅是一次简单的“老登股”超跌反弹，更是周期板块基本面逻辑重塑的开始。\n东方财富\n(\n19.120\n,\n0.23\n,\n1.22%\n)\n证券在研报中分析称，跌幅越深、反弹空间越高的单纯线性推演不成立，而是应当落脚基本面与终端需求，一旦美伊停火，霍尔木兹海峡复航是美伊停火对全球供应链最核心、最直接的利好。\n回顾2月28日伊朗首次宣布对海峡实施管控以来，全球大宗商品市场与A股周期板块经历了一轮显著的估值压缩。\n数据显示，石油石化、有色、交通运输等行业3月以来大幅跑输电子、通信行业。4月1日至6月15日，申万一级行业中（下同），石油石化指数累计下跌12.38%，在31个一级行业中跌幅位居第二；交通运输指数累计下跌6.10%，基础化工、有色金属指数虽然实现增长，但相关个股均有不同程度的调整。这一轮下跌的核心逻辑，在于霍尔木兹海峡管控引发的油价上涨预期，以及随之而来的全球通胀升温、美联储加息预期强化等连锁反应。\n5月以来，这一趋势进一步加剧。在AI、半导体等科技板块持续吸引市场资金的背景下，传统周期板块遭遇明显的资金虹吸效应。“5月份市场主线高度集中在科技成长方向，周期股普遍被资金减持，一方面是霍尔木兹海峡局势带来的不确定性压制了风险偏好，另一方面是高油价预期下市场担忧通胀反复，周期股盈利前景不明朗。在此背景下，受海峡封锁影响的周期行业迎来风险偏好和估值的双重压缩，”一位上海私募基金投资负责人接受记者采访时表示，“但经过这一轮调整，很多周期标的的估值已经跌到了非常有吸引力的位置，基本面其实并没有市场担忧得那么差。”\n以有色金属板块为例，\n招商证券\n(\n18.930\n,\n0.43\n,\n2.32%\n)\n在最新发布的行业周报中指出，3月海峡管控以来，有色金属板块尤其宏观属性较强的贵金属和工业金属板块遭抛售，但铜等工业金属股票和商品价格严重劈叉，证明了工业金属的基本面经受住了考验。\n海峡放开预期背后，四大产业链逻辑有望重塑\n霍尔木兹海峡是全球石油与液化气运输的咽喉要道。一旦全面开放，长期压制相关板块的“地缘断供”风险将实质性解除，前期因恐惧封锁而大幅下跌的海运、航空、化工、有色板块，将迎来基本面逻辑的系统性重构。\n私募基金经理陈莉接受记者采访时表示，霍尔木兹海峡若全面开放，最大的变化不是需求暴增，而是“断供恐惧”的消失。前期深跌正是市场对这一恐惧的过度定价。陈莉说：“但是我们仍然要保持一份警惕，协议尚未完全签署，而且本次协议明显有利于伊朗，要继续观察后面是否还有反复。”\n航空板块被机构普遍认为是最直接的受益方向。陈莉表示，燃油成本下行，出行信心回暖。航空板块前期受双重压制：一是原油价格因地缘溢价高企，航空燃油成本飙升；二是中东地区局势紧张抑制了国际商务与旅游需求。海峡开放后，石油供应稳定性增强，油价中的地缘升水将被挤出，直接降低航空公司最大的可变成本。同时，区域安全环境改善，客座率与货运载运率有望回升，进一步摊薄固定成本。\n东方财富研报认为，航空板块除了成本端的直接改善，需求端的回暖同样值得期待。随着冲突避险情绪消退，叠加暑运旺季来临，国际长线出行需求有望回暖；成本下行也让航司调价空间增加，行业有望迎来量价齐升的良性局面。\n石化与化工板块的改善逻辑则在于裂解价差的扩张与需求端的修复。美伊冲突期间，高油价叠加下游需求偏弱，化工板块成本传导受阻、产业链价差收窄；油价下行后下游制造业成本减轻、开工有望回暖，化工需求或随之修复，行业有望开启补库周期。“原料供应去风险化，成本曲线下移。化工产业对石脑油、丙烷、甲醇等基础原料高度敏感，而这些原料大量依赖海峡通道。全面开放意味着原料进口不再面临‘时断时续’的威胁，企业无须为应对断供而维持高额安全库存，资金占用减少。同时，稳定的原料到岸价格有助于下游产品定价回归供需基本面，前期因成本紊乱而受损的毛利率有望修复。”陈莉对记者说。\n航运板块的逻辑则更为特殊。海峡封锁对油运形成利空的核心原因是有价无市，海峡封锁下，尽管运价中枢飙升，但海峡无法通行导致的需求实质性崩塌引发市场下调船司战争期间的盈利预期。未来海峡一旦恢复通航，在前期去库和战后强需求的格局下，预计将迎来主动补库。干散货航运、港口与集运具备类似油运的补库逻辑，通航顺畅将带动中东补库，一旦美伊和谈、海峡解封则涨价趋势有望明朗。\n有色金属行业二季度以来连续下跌，万得有色金属指数较今年1月创下的历史高点，最大回撤已达26.4%。美伊冲突阶段，市场交易高油价、高通胀乃至全球滞胀，压制有色金属估值；而停火后一旦通胀企稳、衰退预期消退、风险偏好上行，有色金属需求及估值端有望抬升。招商证券看好有色金属板块的补涨机会，该机构称：“霍尔木兹海峡通航，有色金属基本面强势，未来需求预期稳固，当前估值水平偏低。有色金属板块，尤其铜锡等工业金属有望迎来明显补涨的趋势。推荐补涨顺序，铜、锡等工业金属为先，其次贵金属。钨、钽、稀土等小金属持续看好。”\n站在当前时点，结合机构观点与市场表现来看，市场对霍尔木兹海峡复航的交易逻辑已经清晰可见：中东局势缓和→伊朗原油重返市场+供应风险溢价消退→油价大跌→通胀预期降温→美联储加息预期减弱→全球风险偏好上行。在这一传导链条下，此前被压制的周期板块正迎来系统性的估值修复机会。但机构也同时提醒，当前仍处于预期交易阶段，美伊和谈的具体进展、海峡通航的时间表仍存在不确定性，投资者需密切跟踪事态发展。\n新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障\n新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n责任编辑：刘万里 SF014",
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