{
  "url_hash": "6287e1fc04abf5a9",
  "source_id": "yicai",
  "title": "消费市场运行总体平稳，服务消费增势良好",
  "text": "标题:消费市场运行总体平稳，服务消费增势良好\n[sentiment=neutral importance=3 event_type=宏观政策 行业=宏观]\n摘要:5月社零同比下降0.6%，服务消费增势良好，政策强调稳就业促增收，消费市场总体平稳。\n正文:今年5月份，社会消费品零售总额41090亿元，同比下降0.6%。这是2022年12月份以来首次出现负增长。\n国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，5月商品零售额出现了一定下降，主要还是由于去年同期基数比较高，也有部分地区受高温多雨因素，影响居民的线下消费。但是，综合商品和服务销售的总体情况来看，消费市场稳定运行，提质升级的态势没有改变。\n付凌晖强调，总的来看，今年以来，消费市场运行总体平稳，结构持续优化，新增长点加快培育。当然我们也要看到，居民消费的能力和意愿还有待进一步增强，一些领域的市场供给还不能完全满足消费升级的需要，对此要深入实施提振消费专项行动，多措并举促进居民就业增收，不断创新消费场景，优化消费环境，更好地释放消费潜力，改善人民生活。\n服务消费潜力释放\n消费增速放缓，汽车是主要拖累项。汽车类商品零售额占社会消费品零售总额比重长期在10%左右。中国汽车工业协会数据显示，5月份我国汽车产销分别完成261.6万辆和262.9万辆，同比分别下降1.2%和2.1%。受政策调整、市场结构变化、宏观环境承压等多重因素影响，国内汽车市场销量持续下滑。\n付凌晖指出，今年以来，各方面深入实施提振消费专项行动，创新消费场景，激发消费潜力，促进消费提质升级。我国商品和服务销售规模总体继续扩大，结构上呈现了不少亮点。\n具体表现在，服务消费增势良好，新型消费潜能释放，商品消费提质升级，以及乡村市场消费潜力持续释放。\n国家发展改革委国家信息中心大数据发展部副研究员邢玉冠分析，5月以来，得益于以旧换新补贴、促进服务消费等系列政策，叠加“五一”假日消费带动，内需扩容势能稳步积蓄，商品、服务消费继续协同回暖，电子、餐饮、出行等重点消费板块表现亮眼，商户经营活力持续修复，供需两端同步改善，助力国内消费市场保持稳步向好态势。\n随着我国发展阶段的变化，消费场景的日益丰富，服务消费的需求在加速释放，日益成为消费增长的重要力量，服务零售额成为观察消费发展的重要指标。1-5月份，服务零售额同比增长5.4%，持续高于商品零售额增速。\n付凌晖表示，这种变化是经济发展规律所决定的，也是消费升级的重要体现。发达国家过去的发展轨迹也是逐步由商品消费向服务消费扩大的趋势。\n从服务消费的特点来看，旅游消费较快发展，带动了交通出行消费增长。1-5月份，旅游咨询租赁服务、交通出行服务零售额均保持较快增长。同时，文化体育赛事消费不断升温，许多地方组织群众性的体育赛事，积极发展文艺演出市场，对消费的带动不断显现。1-5月份，文体休闲服务类零售额同比增长超过10%。\n假日消费带动效应比较明显。今年“五一”期间，各地推出了一系列惠民措施，百姓喜闻乐见的服务供给不断增加，消费热度攀升。“五一”期间，全社会跨区域人员流动量增长3.5%，全国举办营业性演出收入增长超过10%。\n各地瞄准消费新动向、新需求，积极释放新型消费潜能，网上消费、数字消费、绿色消费成为消费的新增长点。从消费渠道来看，网上消费持续活跃。1-5月份，网上商品和服务零售额同比增长5.9%，其中网上商品零售额增长5%。从消费内容来看，数字消费和绿色消费发展态势良好。数字服务、数字产品零售额增速都较快。从零售业态来看，新业态新模式不断拓展，1-5月份限额以上单位仓储会员店、无人值守商店零售额增速均超过20%。\n随着消费理念的转变，居民对消费品的关注更多从“有没有”向“好不好”转变，品质消费需求不断扩大。1-5月份，限额以上单位化妆品类、通讯器材类商品零售额同比分别增长4.9%和13.8%，都保持了较快增长。商品消费的升级还体现在，居民在选择基本生活品的时候更加注重质量和体验，这也带动了相关商品零售的较快增长。1-5月份，限额以上单位的吃类、穿类、日用品类零售额分别增长8.4%、7.2%和4.6%，都明显快于全部商品零售额增速。\n更大力度提振消费\n关于下阶段消费走势，财信金控首席经济学家伍超明分析，往后看，消费温和回升可期，修复高度不宜过度高估，预计全年社零约增长5%。受外部不利影响仍大，部分企业生产经营困难增加、盈利能力下降影响，预计民间投资与居民谨慎预期扭转需要更多的时间，“就业-收入-消费”循环畅通和居民“多储蓄、少负债、少消费” 的行为模式扭转均难以一蹴而就，消费修复力度或仍偏温和。\n更大力度稳就业促增收是提振消费的关键。“十五五”规划纲要提出，制定实施城乡居民增收计划。今年政府工作报告明确，制定实施城乡居民增收计划，在促进低收入群体增收、增加居民财产性收入、完善薪酬和社保制度等方面推出一批务实举措。\n中国社科院经济研究所研究员黄群慧表示，及早出台城乡居民增收计划会对国内消费有比较好的促进作用。民众的消费行为核心取决于预期收入，而非仅靠现期收入，如果居民增收计划能够出台，会有助于改善居民未来的收入预期，进而有效提振消费。\n第一财经记者注意到，近段时间以来，相关政策举措密集部署。6月6日国务院常务会议审议通过《实施就业优先战略“十五五”规划》，明确下一阶段就业工作要以实施就业优先战略为引领，加强产业和就业协同，持续用力推动就业扩容提质，努力实现高质量充分就业。\n国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁6月10日主持召开经济形势专家座谈会，在部署持续强化改革创新、扩大内需、全面实施“人工智能+”行动的同时，特别强调“切实兜牢民生底线，全力促进重点群体就业”，并提出抓紧研究储备一批针对性、操作性强的政策工具，根据需要及时出台实施。",
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}