news/data/embeddings/20260616/bf6f2cd7e5d010f3.json

{
  "url_hash": "bf6f2cd7e5d010f3",
  "source_id": "sina",
  "title": "国际金价，再度大涨！“牛回，速归”，怎么个事？",
  "text": "标题:国际金价，再度大涨！“牛回，速归”，怎么个事？\n[sentiment=neutral importance=3 event_type=宏观政策 行业=黄金]\n摘要:国际金价大涨后回调，黄金ETF资金流出，但全球央行持续增持，市场短期承压长期配置逻辑未改。\n正文:来源：期货日报\n6月15日，国际\n金价\n跳空高开，再度大涨，站上4300美元/盎司。黄金市场情绪快速复苏，于是又有人喊“牛回，速归”。这到底怎么个事？\n据期货日报记者了解，从1月末突破5594.77美元/盎司的历史高点，到6月11日一度跌至4022.59美元/盎司的年内低位，国际金价步入“下半场”，显露出一定疲态。在金价回落的背景下，黄金市场正呈现出罕见的资金分化格局：一边是全球黄金ETF遭遇净流出，基金规模明显缩水；另一边则是全球央行逆势增持黄金，官方储备需求持续释放。\n与此同时，此前借助金价上涨热销的挂钩黄金结构性存款也开始降温。短期交易资金加速撤离与长期战略资金持续流入并存，成为当前黄金市场最突出的结构性特征。\n加速流出，黄金ETF规模缩水\n世界黄金协会6月公布的报告显示，5月全球实物黄金ETF结束了此前持续净流入的态势，转为净流出约20亿美元。受5月净流出与金价走弱的影响，全球黄金ETF资产管理总规模环比下降2%，至6040亿美元；总持仓量小幅下降至4121吨，略低于2月的历史峰值。值得关注的是，亚洲市场流出较为明显。数据显示，5月亚洲地区黄金ETF自2025年8月以来首次出现月度净流出。\nWind数据显示，截至6月11日，规模排名前四的黄金ETF较一季度末合计减少近400亿元。其中，华安黄金ETF规模跌破千亿元关口，由1138.16亿元降至926.65亿元；博时黄金ETF、易方达黄金ETF和国泰黄金ETF规模分别减少61.73亿元、62.24亿元和63.13亿元。华夏黄金ETF、工银黄金ETF及前海开源黄金ETF规模也均出现不同程度回落。\n从资金流向来看，撤离迹象明显。近60日资金流向数据显示，上述7只黄金ETF合计净流出176.61亿元，仅华夏黄金ETF实现4.55亿元资金净流入，其余6只产品均为净流出状态。其中，华安黄金ETF净流出96.59亿元，国泰黄金ETF净流出39.97亿元，易方达黄金ETF净流出20.75亿元，博时黄金ETF净流出17.57亿元。\n华安基金分析称，本轮黄金市场调整是宏观预期重新定价与资金行为共振的结果。一方面，传统地缘避险逻辑出现变化，美以伊冲突持续推升国际油价，强化了市场对通胀压力的担忧，油价与金价走势形成一定的“跷跷板”效应。同时，美国5月非农就业数据超预期，引发市场对货币政策路径的重新定价，美元和美债收益率走高，抬升黄金持有成本。市场交易主线已从“博弈货币宽松”转向“定价高利率常态化”，贵金属估值体系迎来系统性修正。与此同时，资金面变化也进一步放大了黄金市场的调整风险。此前基于降息预期建立的大量黄金多头仓位开始集中平仓，而AI产业景气度持续超预期，科技巨头资本开支和盈利增长吸引大量资金流向权益市场，黄金在资产配置中的相对吸引力有所下降，特别是在黄金ETF整体仓位已处于高位的背景下，资金分流效应更加明显。\n黄金理财降温，银行集体下调收益率\n黄金市场降温的影响不仅体现在ETF资金流向上，也开始向银行理财端传导。\n受金价回调的影响，此前借助黄金上涨行情热销的挂钩黄金结构性存款产品迅速降温。在产品销售遇冷的同时，预期到期收益率也迎来集体下调。\n据记者了解，近期，交通银行、华夏银行、江苏银行等多家商业银行纷纷下调挂钩黄金结构性存款产品的预期收益率。其中，长期产品的中高档收益反而低于短期产品，出现了较为少见的期限收益率倒挂现象，也反映出银行对黄金中长期走势的预期趋于谨慎。\n大举买入，全球央行购金热情未减\n与黄金ETF出现净流出形成鲜明对比的是，全球央行在4月恢复净购金。据世界黄金协会最新数据，全球各央行4月份净购金约17吨，扭转了3月近30吨净抛售的局面。\n其中，中国央行加快“购金”步伐。国家外汇管理局最新数据显示，截至2026年5月末，中国黄金储备为7496万盎司，较4月末增加32万盎司，增持幅度创近15个月新高。\n值得关注的是，自2024年11月开启新一轮增持周期以来，中国央行已连续19个月增持黄金。今年前5个月，我国央行分别增持4万盎司、3万盎司、16万盎司、26万盎司和32万盎司，增持力度呈现逐步扩大的态势。\n事实上，央行购金已成为近年来全球黄金需求的重要支撑力量。欧洲央行6月发布的报告显示，截至2025年年底，黄金在全球官方储备资产中的占比已升至27%，超过美国国债的22%，成为全球央行第一大储备资产。报告指出，黄金储备占比提升虽然受到金价上涨带来的估值效应影响，但地缘政治风险上升同样是推动各国央行持续增持黄金的重要原因。调查数据显示，各国央行持有黄金不仅出于资产多元化考虑，也将其作为应对地缘政治风险的重要工具。\n国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示，全球央行持续“购金”的核心驱动力主要来自两个方面：一是地缘冲突暴露了美元资产的政治风险，各国为降低对美元体系的依赖，主动将储备向黄金等中性资产转移；二是新兴市场央行黄金储备占比普遍偏低，仍存在较大的增持空间。\n顾冯达认为，相较于ETF资金更关注价格波动和收益表现，全球央行购金更多属于长期战略配置行为，决策周期更长，也更关注储备资产的安全性、多元化以及对冲地缘政治风险等因素。在金价经历回调后，黄金对央行而言反而具备更高的配置价值。\n展望：短期承压，长期配置逻辑未改\n“近期，金价的核心矛盾已从此前的地缘避险以及财政赤字溢价等方面，转向通胀反弹、货币政策重新定价与中长期配置需求之间的再平衡。”金瑞期货贵金属研究员吴梓杰表示。\n记者注意到，上周以来，美国通胀数据持续抬升，市场对美联储年内降息的预期明显降温，并开始重新评估政策利率维持高位甚至进一步收紧的可能性。\n吴梓杰认为，短期来看，黄金仍面临实际利率维持高位、美元表现偏强以及市场风险偏好回升带来的估值压力。如果美国通胀继续超预期，或10年期美债收益率重新走高，不排除金价继续向4000美元/盎司一线寻求支撑。\n不过，吴梓杰同时表示，中长期来看，黄金的配置价值并未因阶段性调整而消失。全球央行购金、美元信用再评估、财政赤字扩张以及地缘政治不确定性，仍在支撑黄金从传统避险资产向储备多元化资产转变。黄金市场或将从此前的单边上涨阶段，逐步转向高位宽幅震荡阶段。\n汇丰晋信价值先锋基金经理李学伟也表示，中长期来看，黄金仍具备一定的配置价值，但短期反弹力度可能受制于高利率环境。他建议投资者应从价格博弈思维转向资产配置思维，合理控制仓位。\n嘉实基金指数基金经理张钟玉建议，投资者可将黄金作为资产组合中的避险配置。若以长期配置为目标，不宜过度关注短期波动；若偏向交易策略，则可借助黄金ETF等工具灵活参与。\n新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n责任编辑：赵思远",
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}