news/data/embeddings/20260616/19293cb04767c812.json

{
  "url_hash": "19293cb04767c812",
  "source_id": "sina",
  "title": "【双焦周报】资金博弈加剧，双焦出现分歧",
  "text": "标题:【双焦周报】资金博弈加剧，双焦出现分歧\n[sentiment=neutral importance=2 event_type=其他 行业=焦煤,焦炭]\n摘要:双焦周报分析焦煤焦炭基本面，焦煤供给收缩但盘面偏弱，焦炭成本支撑走强，市场分歧加大。\n正文:来源：CFC金属研究\n分析师 | 楚新莉 中信建投期货研究发展部\n研究助理 | 刘兴华 中信建投期货研究发展部\n期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可〔2011〕1461号\n本报告完成时间  | 2026年6月14日\n摘要\n本期策略：\n本周\n焦煤\n(\n1556\n,\n-15.00\n,\n-0.95%\n)\n主力合约震荡偏弱，表现明显弱于\n焦炭\n(\n2232\n,\n-47.00\n,\n-2.06%\n)\n。基本面来看，安监趋严下供给收缩继续兑现，山西主产区复产节奏偏慢，部分煤矿实际产量恢复仍不及事故前水平，产地供应偏紧格局延续。需求端方面，焦企及钢厂生产整体稳定，铁水仍处高位，需求尚未出现明显被动收缩。盘面偏弱主要源于市场分歧加大，尤其是对焦煤仓单质量的担忧压制估值。整体看，焦煤基本面仍有支撑，后续关注复产斜率、进口补充及钢厂减产压力。\n本周焦炭主力合约大幅上行，表现明显强于焦煤。一方面焦煤现货维持偏强，安监趋严下上游供给收缩持续兑现，焦炭成本端支撑增强；另一方面，焦炭现货多轮提涨持续落地，本周第七轮提涨已经发起，且落地概率较大，进一步强化盘面做多情绪。相较焦煤，焦炭不存在明显仓单质量担忧，叠加交易所对焦炭限制政策有所放松，资金更倾向于交易焦炭成本抬升和现货提涨逻辑。基本面来看，焦企开工仍处高位，吨焦利润回落至约21元/吨但尚未亏损，主动减产动力有限；钢厂铁水维持高位，需求端仍有刚性支撑，短期焦炭或延续偏强运行。\n利多因素：\n安全检查扰动预期反复发酵；铁水日均产量坚挺，下滑幅度有限；安监力度高于预期；进口端扰动不减。\n利空因素：\n终端钢材需求仍疲软；终端需求持续走弱。\n目录\n一、行情回顾\n本周焦煤主力合约震荡偏弱运行，表现弱于焦炭。基本面来看，焦煤供给端收缩仍在持续兑现，山西主产区复产节奏偏慢，部分煤矿即便复产，实际产量恢复仍不及事故前水平。本周523家样本矿山开工率进一步降至69.62%，日均原煤产量回落至156.37万吨，产地供应偏紧格局并未明显缓解。与此同时，焦企及钢厂生产整体维持稳定，铁水仍处高位，需求端尚未出现明显被动收缩，焦煤现货价格仍维持偏强。\n但盘面层面，本周焦煤并未延续此前强势，主要在于市场分歧有所加大。一方面，安监趋严下供给收缩较为确定，且复产和实际产量恢复均偏慢，焦煤基本面仍具支撑；另一方面，市场对焦煤仓单质量存在一定担忧，盘面定价受到压制。\n整体来看，当前焦煤核心矛盾仍在供给端。短期需求端尚未出现大幅减产来匹配供应缺口，钢厂减产压力也不明显；供给端虽然存在复产及高价刺激进口的预期，但短期增量仍不足以扭转前期减量。焦煤价格仍具上行空间，但盘面或继续受到仓单质量、政策预期及资金情绪扰动。后续重点关注主产区实际产量恢复斜率、蒙煤及海运煤补充情况，以及钢厂减产压力是否上升。\n本周焦炭主力合约大幅上行，表现明显强于焦煤。驱动上看，一方面，焦煤现货仍维持偏强，安监趋严下上游供给收缩持续兑现，焦炭成本端支撑较强；另一方面，焦炭现货端多轮提涨持续落地，本周焦企已开始发起第七轮提涨，且落地概率较大，进一步强化了盘面做多情绪。\n与焦煤相比，焦炭本周表现更强，主要在于盘面交易逻辑更为顺畅。焦煤虽然基本面偏强，但市场对仓单质量存在担忧，盘面定价受到一定压制；而焦炭不存在明显仓单问题，叠加交易所对焦炭限制政策有所放松，资金更倾向于交易焦炭的成本抬升和现货提涨逻辑，因此焦炭盘面弹性明显放大。\n从基本面来看，焦炭供给端整体仍维持稳定，焦企开工和日均产量小幅波动但仍处高位。虽然吨焦利润已回落至约21元/吨，行业盈利明显压缩，但仍未进入亏损区间，叠加焦炉连续生产特性，焦企主动减产动力仍有限。需求端来看，钢厂开工和铁水仍维持高位，短期减产压力不大，对焦炭刚需仍有支撑。整体来看，焦炭当前处于“成本支撑较强、现货提涨推进、需求尚未明显收缩”的偏强格局，后续重点关注第七轮提涨落地情况、钢厂利润承接能力以及铁水是否出现实质性回落。\n二、宏观数据\n三、双焦基本面数据\n1．\n重大煤矿事故抬升安监预期，供给态势阶段性反转\n焦煤：\n从基本面来看，本周焦煤供给端收缩继续加深。受山西沁源煤矿事故后安监力度持续影响，主产区复产节奏仍偏慢，部分矿点即便复产，实际产量恢复也明显受限。本周523家样本矿山开工率进一步降至69.62%，日均原煤产量回落至156.37万吨，较上周继续下行，产地供应收缩仍在兑现。需求端来看，焦企及钢厂开工整体维持稳定，洗煤厂开工小幅下滑，铁水对焦煤仍有刚性消耗支撑，需求端暂未出现明显收缩。\n库存结构方面，本周焦煤产业链库存多数环节去化。煤矿库存降至174.96万吨，周环比下降23.17万吨，产地库存继续快速下降；洗煤厂库存降至329.75万吨，周环比下降25.01万吨，洗选端库存同步回落。中下游方面，焦化企业焦煤库存降至1100.13万吨，周环比下降56.86万吨；钢厂焦煤库存小幅降至781.54万吨，仍以刚需采购为主。港口库存有所补充，但增幅有限。\n整体来看，本周焦煤供给收缩进一步被数据验证。煤矿开工和产量继续回落，产业链多数环节库存同步下降，而焦企、钢厂生产仍维持稳定，供需矛盾仍偏向供给端。当前焦煤基本面仍处于“供给收缩兑现、需求维持韧性”的偏强格局，短期价格支撑仍较强。后续重点关注山西主产区安监范围、复产验收节奏、实际产量恢复斜率以及港口和进口资源补充情况。\n焦炭：\n从基本面来看，本周焦炭现货端继续偏强运行。前期多轮提涨陆续落地后，焦企已开始发起第七轮提涨，焦钢博弈继续向上推进。供给端方面，焦化企业开工维持相对高位，生产节奏整体稳定；虽然吨焦利润较前期有所回落，但焦企生产积极性尚未明显下降，短期供给端主动收缩动力有限。\n库存结构方面，本周焦炭库存小幅分化。焦化企业焦炭库存升至94.43万吨，周环比增加4.48万吨，但整体仍低于去年同期，厂内库存压力尚不突出；港口库存降至214.35万吨，周环比下降4.13万吨，流通环节资源继续消化；钢厂焦炭库存小幅回升至703.16万吨，周环比增加3.60万吨，在铁水维持高位背景下，钢厂刚需采购仍有支撑。\n需求端来看，钢厂生产仍具韧性，短期高铁水对焦炭需求形成支撑。与此同时，焦煤供给收缩仍在兑现，现货成本支撑维持偏强，焦企挺价基础较为牢固。整体来看，当前焦炭仍运行在“成本支撑、现货提涨、需求有韧性”的格局中，第七轮提涨具备一定落地基础。后续需重点关注钢厂利润承接能力、铁水高位持续性以及焦煤成本端变化。\n2．\n产业链运行重心分化明显\n生产端来看，本周产业链运行节奏继续分化。受山西沁源煤矿事故后安监力度持续影响，煤矿端开工及产量继续下行，523家样本矿山开工率进一步降至69.62%，日均原煤产量回落至156.37万吨，产地供应收缩仍在兑现。洗煤厂方面，产能利用率降至34.64%，洗选端加工负荷小幅回落，上游原煤供应偏紧对洗选环节形成一定传导。\n焦化企业方面，焦炉产能利用率降至75.43%，日均焦炭产量降至64.94万吨，但整体仍处相对稳定水平。在现货提涨持续推进、焦化利润仍处盈利区间的背景下，焦企生产积极性尚未明显下降，供给端暂无明显主动收缩。钢厂端生产维持韧性，高炉开工率小幅升至90.29%，日均铁水产量回升至240.86万吨，仍维持在240万吨以上，对焦煤及焦炭需求形成刚性支撑。\n整体来看，当前双焦基本面仍处在供给收缩与高铁水需求之间的再平衡阶段，需求端尚未出现明显被动收缩，短期供需矛盾仍主要集中在上游焦煤供应恢复偏慢。后续需重点关注山西主产区复产验收节奏、实际产量恢复斜率以及钢厂减产压力是否进一步上升。\n3．\n焦化利润小幅收窄，供给端仍有维持\n本周焦化利润继续回落，吨焦利润约21元/吨，较前期高位明显收窄，行业盈利已处于低位水平，经营压力较前期已有所增加。但在当前利润水平下，焦企生产积极性尚未出现明显回落。从生产行为来看，焦炉连续生产特性决定短期供给不易快速收缩，且当前吨焦利润仍未降至亏损区间，焦企主动减产动力仍相对有限，供给端整体维持运行节奏。后续需继续关注第七轮提涨推进情况、钢厂利润承接能力，以及成本上移对焦企盈利和现货博弈的影响。\n4．\n长周期下终端需求乏力，预期尚未扭转\n5．期现结构延续分化\n新浪合作平台中信建投期货开户 安全有保障\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n责任编辑：赵思远",
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