news/data/embeddings/20260616/acb81058fe2820ac.json

{
  "url_hash": "acb81058fe2820ac",
  "source_id": "cls",
  "title": "券商“重资本化”进入下半场，不仅是业务线提速，更是分化加速器",
  "text": "标题:券商“重资本化”进入下半场，不仅是业务线提速，更是分化加速器\n[sentiment=neutral importance=3 event_type=其他 公司=天风证券,中泰证券,南京证券,广发证券,华泰证券 行业=证券]\n摘要:文章分析券商重资本化趋势，指出行业分化加速，多家券商完成资本补充，但市场更关注资本投向效率。\n正文:财联社6月16日讯（记者 王晨）\n券商重资本的故事，正在从“该不该重”进入“怎么重、谁能重好”的下半场。\n我们此前在\n《券商的重资本，应该重在哪？增加新答案》\n报道中对券商补资本金和科创投资的讨论，提出了一个新的答案：资本不仅要服务两融、自营、衍生品和国际业务，也要更多投向科创企业和新质生产力。但如果再往前追问一步，重资本化带来的影响并不只是一条新业务线，而可能是行业分化的加速器。\n数据显示，2025年证券行业营业收入为5399.94亿元，其中自营收入1856.64亿元，占比34.38%；利息收入642.81亿元，占比11.90%。若将自营和利息收入合并观察，重资本业务占比为46.29%，虽较2024年的49.69%有所回落，但较2018年的37.05%仍提高约9.24个百分点。\n更值得关注的是资产端变化。资料显示，42家上市券商投资类资产规模从2016年的1.78万亿元提升至2025年三季度的7.09万亿元，年复合增速达15%，占总资产比重从35%升至48%；同期信用类资产从1.33万亿元增至2.32万亿元，占比却从26%降至16%。\n这意味着，券商资产负债表扩张的主驱动，已经更多从信用业务转向投资业务。\n这正是分化的起点。轻资产业务靠牌照、渠道和流量，重资产业务靠资本、投研、风控、资产配置和产业识别能力。当行业越来越依赖资产负债表赚钱，资本金充足但不会配置、规模够大但风险定价不足、敢于扩表但没有产业判断的机构，反而可能被更快甩开。\n重资本占比长期抬升，收入结构已被改写\n从证券业协会口径看，行业收入结构变化已经相当明显。2008年，行业经纪业务收入占比高达70.50%，重资本业务占比仅16.55%；到2025年，经纪业务占比降至33.61%，投行业务占比降至7.36%，资管占比为4.42%，三项轻资产业务合计约45.40%。与此同时，自营与利息收入合计占比已达到46.29%。\n这组数据背后，是券商传统商业模式的变化。经纪业务仍是基本盘，但佣金率下行压缩了成交放大带来的收入弹性；投行业务受IPO节奏和监管周期影响，波动加大；资管转型仍在重塑产品和渠道。\n相较之下，自营、信用、做市、客需衍生品、科创股权投资等业务，越来越决定券商能否把资本金转化为收入和利润。\n资产负债表扩张，核心已经从信用转向投资\n如果说收入结构显示重资本化结果，资产负债表则揭示了重资本化的路径。上市券商资产结构数据显示，2016年以来，投资类资产规模从1.78万亿元增至2025年三季度的7.09万亿元，占总资产比重提升13个百分点；信用类资产规模虽从1.33万亿元增至2.32万亿元，但占比从26%降至16%。\n换言之，券商过去若干年的扩表，并不是信用业务一条腿走路，而是投资资产持续膨胀。自营业务顺着债牛、高股息、OCI配置和交易性金融资产扩张而做大，成为资产端最重要的增量来源。\n数据还显示，42家上市券商截至2025年上半年投资资产中，交易性金融资产规模为47556亿元，占投资资产比例70%；其他债权投资13368亿元，占比20%；其他权益工具投资5716亿元，占比8%。\n轻资产业务停滞，倒逼券商寻找资本效率\n重资本化并非凭空发生，背后是轻资产业务增长乏力。数据显示，近15年轻资产业务CAGR约4.0%，而行业净资产15年CAGR达12.6%，重资产业务CAGR为13.1%。这意味着，行业资本补充很快，但轻资本收入没有同步增长，ROE中枢被摊薄，券商必须寻找新的资本使用效率。\n经纪业务是最典型的例子。数据显示，2025年A股股基日均交易规模为2.1万亿元，是2007年、2015年的10.6倍和1.9倍；但2025年行业经纪业务收入1815亿元，仅为2007年、2009年的1.1倍和1.3倍，也不及2015年的70%。成交活跃并没有等比例转化为经纪收入，费率竞争让传统流量逻辑失效。\n当“流量增长”不能自动带来“收入增长”，券商自然会转向资本效率更高的业务。但问题也在这里：重资本业务不是简单加杠杆，如何把资本投到更好的资产上，才有更强的ROE修复能力。\n重资本不是同一种重，业务选择决定分化方向\n从券商主要重资产业务的对比来看，客需和回报率导向决定用资方向。\n例如，两融业务依赖客户需求，资金收益率相对稳定，是较优先的扩表方向；股票质押业务经历风险暴露后持续压降，更多回归投行综合化服务；权益自营波动大，更像弹性业务；固收自营过去依靠杠杆和票息安全垫形成优势，但2024年后开始出现收缩，2025年后转向低位震荡。\n这意味着，重资本化并不是所有券商都能复制的统一路径。头部券商可以同时布局FICC、衍生品、客需交易、国际业务和科创投资，中型券商可能更适合围绕区域产业、特色投行、两融客户和固收配置形成局部优势，小券商若盲目扩表，则更容易在波动中暴露风险。\n前十券商也在呈现类似变化。数据显示，2010年至2025年，前十大券商重资产业务占比从20%提升至51%，其中中国银河、申万宏源等部分券商占比超过60%。重资本业务越往后走，越考验综合资产配置能力，而不是简单的资本规模。\n科创投资让分化更深，不只是赚一笔浮盈\n此前讨论券商重资本时，科创投资被视为新答案。放在分化逻辑下看，它的意义还可以再推进一步：科创投资不是传统自营的替代品，而是券商从交易型资产负债表走向产业型资产负债表的入口。\n对于头部券商而言，科创投资的优势并不只在资金量，更在项目来源、产业研究、投行承揽、保荐跟投、私募子和另类子平台、退出渠道之间的协同。一个硬科技项目若能贯通早期投资、IPO保荐、跟投、做市、研究覆盖、再融资和并购服务，券商拿到的就不只是承销费或投资浮盈，而是整个产业链条的复合收益。\n更进一步说，一些券商正以投资引导销售，让客户赚钱，成为多业务驱动器。\n这也解释了为什么重资本会成为分化加速器。传统通道业务中，差距更多体现为客户数量和网点渠道；科创投资和客需交易中，差距则体现为认知、定价、风控和协同。前者可以靠投入追赶，后者更依赖长期积累。\n资本补充还会继续，但市场更关心资本投向\n2015年至2017年、2020年至2022年，证券行业曾经历两轮密集资本补充浪潮。2025年以来，天风证券、中泰证券、南京证券等完成定增，广发证券通过H股配售及转债募资，华泰证券发行100亿港元零息可转债，西南证券也推出不超过60亿元定增预案。资本补充仍在延续。\n但与过去不同的是，市场对再融资的关注点正在从“能否补资本”转向“补完投向哪里”。如果新增资本主要用于低效率扩表，可能继续摊薄ROE；如果投向客需交易、两融、FICC、国际业务、科创投资和产业资本服务，并形成可验证的资本回报，才可能改变券商估值逻辑。\n从行业收入结构到资产负债表，再到科创投资和资本补充，重资本化已经不只是券商业务结构变化，而是行业竞争规则变化。过去券商分化看经纪份额、投行项目和市场行情弹性，未来还要看资本投向、风险定价、产业识别和资产配置能力。\n这也意味着，券商重资本的真正问题，不是“要不要重”，而是“重在哪里、靠什么重、重完能不能提高资本回报”。重资本化进入下半场后，行业不会因为大家都扩表而变得更平均，反而可能因为资本使用能力不同而更快分化。",
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}