news/data/embeddings/20260616/cdc2711c08dd94e3.json

{
  "url_hash": "cdc2711c08dd94e3",
  "source_id": "cls",
  "title": "华尔街最激进！沃什“首秀”在即 资管巨头PGIM料美联储今年加息三次",
  "text": "标题:华尔街最激进！沃什“首秀”在即 资管巨头PGIM料美联储今年加息三次\n[sentiment=neutral importance=2 event_type=国际局势 行业=宏观]\n摘要:PGIM预计美联储今年加息三次，市场关注沃什首秀，无A股直接关联。\n正文:财联社6月16日讯（编辑 卞纯）\n随着顽固的通胀和强劲的经济增长重塑货币政策前景，\n美国资管巨头PGIM预计美联储今年将加息三次\n。\nPGIM是保德信金融集团旗下全球资产管理业务，\n其此番预测与市场主流观点相悖\n，因此格外引人关注。\n目前，期货市场预计美国联邦基金利率到2026年底将升至3.8%左右，较当前实际有效利率3.62%小幅上调。而PGIM的“加息三次”情景将使利率远超这一水平，这表明该机构认为市场低估了通胀风险。\nPGIM表示，\n其对美国经济的基准预期是经济正在过热，经济增长高于趋势水平，且通胀仍高于美联储2%的目标\n。PGIM指出，由人工智能（AI）驱动的投资、强劲的消费者支出、财政刺激以及稳固的劳动力市场，都是使经济热度超出预期的推动力。\n该机构的最新预测相较其此前 “年内降息” 的预测出现大幅转向，是对通胀走向以及美联储需要采取何种力度应对通胀的根本性重估。\nPGIM表示，\n由于美联储已连续五年以上未能实现通胀目标，可能需要收紧政策以重建其在抗通胀方面的信誉\n。\n该观点远比当前的市场定价更为激进。交易员们虽已放弃降息预期，并认为加息可能性上升，但并未计入今年加息三次的紧缩周期。\n沃什“首秀”在即\nPGIM还预计，在今年加息三次之后，美联储将相对迅速地逆转加息措施：2027年进行三次降息，并在2028年再降息一次，最终将终端利率降至3.375%。\n上述预测发布之际，新任美联储主席凯文·沃什即将主持其首次议息会议。市场普遍预计美联储本周三将把利率维持在3.50%至3.75%不变，但更大的悬念在于，官员们是否会表态认可市场当前的预期——即利率后续会走高。\n对市场而言，风险在于美联储不再讨论何时降息，而是还能撑多久不重新收紧政策。这将令利率敏感型资产（包括长久期科技股和加密货币）持续面临压力。\n上周公布的数据显示，美国5月CPI时隔三年重返4%上方。地缘政治紧张局势，尤其是在中东局势，持续推高能源成本，并加剧通胀压力。虽然美国和伊朗已经确认达成重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的谅解备忘录，并将于本周五正式签署，但协议能在多大程度上得到遵守仍存在不确定性，且航运供应链恢复正常仍需时日。\n无论如何，夹在美国总统特朗普和日益鹰派的美联储之间的沃什，将迎来一场严峻考验。近日，多位美联储官员释放加息信号，而一直以来呼吁降息的特朗普则多次淡化通胀风险。\n华尔街最激进预测\nPGIM并非唯一一家预测美联储今年将加息的机构，但其发出的预测声音堪称“华尔街最激进”。\n法国巴黎银行近日预测，美联储将从12月开始连续加息三次，其中有两次将落在2027年初。\n华尔街顶级做市商城堡证券（Citadel Securities）日前警告称，目前顽固的通胀、强劲的就业数据及居高不下的油价，暗示美联储最快可能在9月重启升息。",
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}