news/data/embeddings/20260616/3cd8eedd73a02b32.json

{
  "url_hash": "3cd8eedd73a02b32",
  "source_id": "yicai",
  "title": "日本央行加息重回1%利率时代，将从明年4月起暂停缩减购债，市场继续关注日元",
  "text": "标题:日本央行加息重回1%利率时代，将从明年4月起暂停缩减购债，市场继续关注日元\n[sentiment=neutral importance=2 event_type=宏观政策 行业=宏观]\n摘要:日本央行加息至1%，并宣布从2027年4月起暂停缩减购债，市场关注日元走势。\n正文:在今日（6月16日）利率决议中，日本央行将政策利率从0.75%上调至1%，这创下日本自1995年以来，时隔三十一年来的最高利率水平，也是该行自1995年以来首次重返1%利率时代。\n日本央行以7票对1票作出利率决定，政策委员会审议委员浅田对利率决定持反对意见。这意味着日本央行正加速从过去十年的大规模货币宽松政策转向传统的通胀遏制角色，与欧洲央行等其他主要经济体近期收紧货币政策的步伐保持一致。\n日本央行称，日本经济已实现温和复苏，不过部分领域仍显现出疲软态势，将根据经济和物价情况持续加息。\n日本央行行长植田和男因肝囊肿感染正在医院接受为期两周的治疗，副行长内田真一代替主持会议并将于周二北京时间14：30举行新闻发布会。市场对此高度关注，因为投资者需要从内田的言论中解读未来加息的节奏和幅度。乐天证券经济研究所首席经济学家爱宕伸康评论称，尽管内田真一通常立场“鸽派”，但他可能在此次发布会上刻意表现得更为“鹰派”，以避免引发不受欢迎的日元进一步贬值。\n除了利率决策，此次会议还审议了目前持续到明年3月的缩减购债计划，并为2027财年及之后制定新的购债框架。会议前，市场就预计，鉴于中东冲突加剧了通胀风险，导致债券市场波动加剧，日本央行将考虑从2027年4月起暂停缩减购债规模，以稳定债市。\n日本央行今日宣布，截至2027年1月~3月，每季度缩减1万亿日元日本国债月度购买量的当前计划保持不变。随后，从2027年4月起暂停缩减购债，将日本国债每月购买规模维持在约2万亿日元。明年暂停缩减购债的决策以7票支持、1票反对获得通过，审议委员田村主张自2027年4月起，每季度缩减购债规模2000亿日元。这一潜在转向意味着，在加息的同时，日本央行可能并不希望过度收紧金融市场流动性，从而避免引发债券市场的剧烈震荡。\n日本央行并表示，将停止对缩减购债计划进行中期评估的做法。若长期利率快速上升，将灵活应对，例如增加日本国债购买量及实施固定利率购债操作。\n图源：日本央行官网\n年内或还有两次加息\n瑞穗总研高级经济学家Saisuke Sakai分析称，此次加息是自去年12月以来的首次调整，背后驱动力主要来自三个方面：能源冲击、日元贬值导致的进口成本上升，以及劳动力市场紧张带来的工资上涨压力。\n日本5月批发价格同比上涨6.3%，增速创下三年来最快纪录。\n分析师预计，这股物价压力可能在今年晚些时候将核心消费者通胀率推升至远高于2%的目标水平。\n同时，日元对美元汇率上周以来持续徘徊在160左右的低位，市场普遍认为日本央行缓慢的加息步伐也是导致日元疲软的重要原因之一。而日元贬值会进一步推高进口商品价格，形成通胀的恶性循环。\nSaisuke Sakai称，植田生病治疗不会影响日本央行后续机构性的决策重点。当前的核心矛盾是日益加剧的通胀风险，而非中东冲突对经济增长构成的威胁。日本央行多数决策委员此前就已警告物价压力正在升高。\n日本央行前首席经济学家龟田清作周一表示，即便美伊达成和平协议，大概率不会动摇日本央行年内两次加息的既定安排。若不是中东冲突影响，此次加息原本计划在4月落地。\n他认为，若和平协议能让霍尔木兹海峡顺利恢复通航，或会缓解日本央行的压力，使其不必被迫以超预期的激进加息节奏来抑制通胀。\n富达国际多元资产全球主管奎菲（Matthew Quaife）本周稍早曾对第一财经记者表示，中东冲突的影响在“亚洲市场最重要的分化，体现在中国、韩国、日本等较为成熟的东北亚经济体，与印度、泰国及菲律宾等南亚和东南亚经济体之间。相比之下，前者整体上更有能力抵御本轮冲突带来的外溢影响。”\n“日本经济复苏势头依然稳固，财政扩张政策以及内需回暖为其提供了支撑。尽管日本高度依赖能源进口，高油价可能对居民实际收入和企业利润率形成压力，并增加经济增长面临的下行风险，但市场预计政府将继续推出包括补充预算在内的财政支持措施。因此，我们预计，日本央行将继续以循序渐进的方式推进货币政策正常化，在稳定通胀预期的同时避免对经济增长造成过大冲击。”他称。\n巴克莱银行也预计日本央行本轮加息周期远未结束，今年10月和2027年4月还将分别加息25个基点，最终政策利率升至1.5%。野村稍早曾表示，本次会议的核心看点在于日本央行是否释放“加快加息节奏”的信号，包括是否有委员主张一次性加息50个基点，以及政策声明是否继续强调实际利率“显著偏低”。\n日元“保卫战”持续\n由于市场早已计价加息，决议公布后，美元对日元走势变化不大，最新报160.23。\n刚刚过去的一周中，美元对日元持续震荡于160关键心理关口，一度触及160.395的五周高位。日本央行账户数据还显示，在4月底，日本央行总计投入超5万亿规模的日元救市，但依旧提振效果有限。\n日元疲软通常会利好出口企业，但对进口依赖度高的日本经济而言，日元贬值会大幅推高能源、食品和原材料的进口成本。这些成本最终转嫁给消费者，导致通胀超出日本央行目标。当贬值开始威胁物价稳定时，日本央行就必须通过加息来支撑本币汇率，抑制输入型通胀。\n在巴克莱和野村证券看来，决定日元命运的并非此次会议是否加息本身，而是日本央行是否愿意释放更“鹰派”的加息信号。两家机构均认为，市场早已完全消化6月加息预期，若央行仅完成一次“毫无惊喜”的25个基点加息，日元未必会走强。只有让市场相信后续还会继续加息，才能真正扭转持续数年的贬值趋势。在巴克莱看来，核心观测指标包括，日本央行是否调整实际利率措辞、有无支持加息50个基点的投票、以及副行长内田稍后发布会基调。\n野村表示，历史经验也表明，仅靠一次25个基点的加息，很难从根本上扭转日元走势。当前影响美元对日元的核心变量仍是美日利差。在10年期美国国债收益率持续位于高位之际，即便日本利率上调至1%，与美国的利差依然悬殊。因此，若日本央行未能让市场确信未来将进一步加息，资金仍将倾向于流向美元资产。\n一旦美元对日元突破160关口并继续上行，日本政府再次入场干预汇市的概率也将显著上升。日本财务大臣近期已明确表示，当局“随时准备采取果断行动”。市场普遍预期，随着日本央行最新议息会议落幕，汇率干预风险将重新成为关注焦点。\n金融服务公司Monex Group的专家总监科尔（Jesper Koll）称，“在不改变国内货币政策的情况下进行干预，就像踩刹车，同时右脚牢牢踩在油门上。往好了说，你的乘客会有一点乐趣，往坏了说，就是你的刹车片要烧坏了。”\n日经225指数继续小幅上涨。奎菲称，相较于汽车制造商等国际投资者更为熟悉的大型企业，日本中小盘企业正开始跑赢大盘。由于其业务与本土经济联系更为紧密，因此受到地缘政治因素扰动的影响相对较小，也更有望受益于国内需求复苏。",
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}